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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 19, No 5 (2022)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-5

COLUMN EDITOR

RISKS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

10-18 688
Abstract

   The issues related to the transformation of risk management subsystems within the framework of the concept of sustainable development in companies, enterprises, firms and organizations are considered. The ways of solving problems aimed at the formation of separate subsystems of risk
management, within which the concept of sustainable development is fully taken into account, are proposed. Th e variants of embedding such subsystems into existing management systems are analyzed.
The goal-setting procedures of companies are proposed, coordinated with the principles of sustainable development and taking into account social, environmental and other risks. The analyzed goals are divided into four groups. Relevant risks are identifi ed, identifi ed and described for each of the groups. It is noted that there is a need for careful regulation of the processes of creating and reformatting risk management subsystems, taking into account compliance with the principles of sustainable development. The proposed methods for the formation of risk management subsystems are partially illustrated by the example of a large company that is part of the Rosatom State Corporation.

20-27 448
Abstract

   Issues of sustainable development in the context of procurement often remain undisclosed since key attention is paid to the social and environmental impacts associated with the operational processes of enterprises. At the same time, the risks and opportunities hidden in supply chains have a signifi cant impact on achieving the sustainable development goals of the enterprise. The article provides information on the basic stage of the implementation of the sustainable development strategy in relation to procurement, which is characterized by the updating of the procurement policy of the enterprise and the use of a document regulating the expectations of the enterprise in terms of the specifi cs of building internal and external processes and procedures of suppliers, which is commonly called the code of conduct or the code of business conduct. The article presents a model of working with this document and examines its impact on the eff ectiveness of procurement procedures, depending on the dynamics of implementation and expectations of the degree of compliance with the requirements of its provisions for various categories of suppliers. It is established that consistent and step-by-step work according to the above model on the implementation of the code of conduct does not lead to a decrease in procurement efficiency.

RISK MANAGEMENT

28-39 346
Abstract

   In this paper the sources of forest fi re monitoring data are analyzed. It is required to form a union interdepartmental information space and use intelligent data processing tools to support management. Th e proposed method for linking sets of heterogeneous data in the process of forming management decisions is discussed. An algorithm for applying diff erent data to manage fire safety in rural areas of Siberia is given.

40-47 449
Abstract

   In the conditions of uncertainty of doing business, special importance is attached to the risk management of the organization. Effective risk management is impossible without competent resource support of the risk management system. In turn, the rational allocation of the organization’s resource potential is also impossible without a risk management system. The instability of the external environment constantly generates new risks, and to manage them, it is necessary to transform the resource complex of the organization in accordance with new trends.

   Identification of such trends that can signifi cantly change the approach to the resource provision of the risk management system is the purpose of this work.

   Approaches to the defi nition of such basic concepts as “risk” and “resource potential” were considered, diff erences in the main standards in the field of risk management on the issue of risk management stages were described. Also, the need to create and take into account recommendations on the side of the risk management system when making decisions, in particular, the use of a risk-based approach when using resource potential, was justifi ed. In addition, three main trends in the development of modern business were identifi ed: the strengthening of the infl uence of geopolitical risks, business consolidation and the introduction of the concept of sustainable development based on ESG principles. Th e key risks were identifi ed, the appearance of which may become or has already become a consequence of the above-mentioned directions of business transformation, and the necessary resource support for the implementation of measures to manage these risks was described.

RISKS OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS

48-57 464
Abstract

   The article discusses the problem of exceeding the planned deadlines for the implementation of investment projects and ensuring their sustainability at the stage of project preparation using digital risk management technologies. The risk of exceeding the project deadlines is considered as a consequence of the influence of uncertainty of the initial data, the duration of the project implementation and its individual stages, the resources used, conditions, assumptions and restrictions on the project objectives associated with its implementation within the deadlines established by the project schedule. Risk factors were identifi ed and a digital method of distributed assessment of the risk of exceeding the project deadlines was considered, including its soft ware implementation in the Microsoft Project environment. On the example of a real project for the reconstruction of a unique object — the Felix Chopin Mansion in St. Petersburg, a computational experiment was carried out and new possibilities for building a risk profile and digital visualization of managing the risk of exceeding the project deadlines are shown.

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK

58-79 440
Abstract

   The partnership between the EU and the AU in the fi eld of protection against natural disasters leads to the rapprochement of Africa and Europe, strengthening economic cooperation, sustainable development, when both continents coexist in peace, security, democracy, prosperity, solidarity and human dignity. A comparative analysis of the risk of nature management in the EU and AU countries has shown that countries with a high level of economic development do not have a clear advantage. Moreover, the AU countries oft en look more favorable. The overall picture for the EU and the AU, both in terms of absolute indicators and in terms of the percentage ratio of natural hazards, protection from natural disasters and risk of nature management, is also not in favor of the European Union. The leadership of the EU, the European Commission and its specialized disaster management units often overestimate their economic capabilities. Dangerous natural processes catch the highly developed states of Europe unawares and cause significant damage also because of the very high level of development of the EU territory. In the AU, firstly, a significant part of the territory is pristine natural landscapes, oft en completely unpopulated, secondly, in many countries the adaptation mechanisms of the local population to natural disasters are widely developed, and thirdly, the AU countries practically do not spend their own resources to combat natural disasters, and provide this process at the expense of external fi nancial and humanitarian aid from donors — the UN, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, various public organizations and, actually, from the EU. Nevertheless, the eff ective functioning of the entire disaster management system requires a strong economy in the EU and the AU as a whole, as well as in individual countries. Its basic subsystems should be: 1) market management — leadership at the level of company management, mentoring, creation of institutional conditions for development of innovative entrepreneurship, consulting and teaching entrepreneurs new methods of managing and running business; 2) financing — private investments, business projects, access to credit; 3) national-cultural and cross-cultural processes — entrepreneurial culture, formation of new progressive ideas on the principles of sustainable development, tolerance of entrepreneurial risk, self-employment, encouragement of success in innovation, establishment of business innovation summits; 4) regulation and promotion — regulatory framework, ease of starting and doing business, access to information and consulting infrastructure, new information and communication technologies, transport accessibility; 5) development and growth of human capital — universities and research centers as catalysts of innovation, promotion of employment and interaction with employers for employment of university graduates in innovative companies, talent management, availability of outsourcing; 6) new areas of activity — domestic market, large, medium, small companies as customers, including the state (state order, state procurement), logistics.

RISK AND UNCERTAINTY

80-89 406
Abstract

   Quantitative assessment of technogenic risk is traditionally carried out in point setting. Meanwhile, in the experimental part of the natural and technical sciences, it has long been customary to take into account the presence of uncertainty and quantify it. It is time to take into account the presence of uncertainty and quantify it in mathematical modeling, in particular, when performing a quantitative assessment of technogenic risk. Th e article contains a draft regulation on the analysis and quantitative assessment of the uncertainty of the estimated indicators of technogenic risk.

DISCUSSION CLUB

90-97 432
Abstract

   This article discusses defi nitions and the modern concept of risk. The author demonstrates the normative, technical and cognitive problems associated with the calculated values of possible damage and the probability of a negative event, and also suggests looking at the defi nition of risk in isolation from the concept of probability.

   The aim of the work is to draw attention to the cognitive aspects of risk and probability.

   This is important, since, according to the author, the peculiarities of human perception can signifi cantly distort information, both collected and processed during the risk analysis procedure. As arguments in favor of the author’s position, the results of many years of research by world-famous scientists are presented.



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ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)