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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 17, No 4 (2020)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2020-17-4

COLUMN EDITOR

SANITARY AND EPIDEMIOLOGICAL RISK

10-21 586
Abstract

The subject of the research are a multi-level study of the territorial characteristics of emergency situations, analysis of operational information, and risk management of various origins. A topic model of the current COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic process have been developed in terms of reliability theory. The model is based on the methods of parametric hierarchical and variational modeling, which takes into account the similarity of exponential functions of the relationship between the parameters of the situation at different organizational levels.

The objective of the work is to identify the characteristics of the reaction of the population of different countries to anti-epidemic measures of public risk management.

The research methods are based on information technology for designing and approximating curves and surfaces with functions of various complexity, which is implemented by means of fractal parametric modeling of spatial objects and allows you to create new graphical confi gurations by varying the parameters and functions of their connections. Calculations are performed in variables that are biased relative to the environmental values, which makes it possible to take into account the territorial specifi cs of managing the parameters of the failure rate (risk of disease). In comparative statistical analysis, the advantage of this modeling is related to the relativity of reliability indicators, which makes it possible to eliminate country-specific features of epidemiological data collection. The complexity of hierarchical models is expressed in the multiplicity of embedding (superposition) of exponential functions. The model of the epidemic does not regulate the intensity of infection (disease risk), but reduces the acceptable risk of infection by organizational pressure on the magnitude of this risk. The effectiveness of the impact is assessed by the values of stable manageability indicators, which is individual for each territory. The Chinese authorities demonstrated high manageability of the population's behavior in the conditions of the beginning of the epidemic. The average manageability level is typical for Western countries with similar trends in the development of the pandemic. Russian society has shown low manageability with a high degree of state readiness to fight the pandemic.

22-26 550
Abstract
The article presents an analysis of the main legal acts adopted during the pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus. Issues related to the legality of temperature measurement, collection of medical information, its transmission for statistics are addressed and stored in accordance with the goals of collection. It is especially emphasized that in cases of collection and transfer of information, all personal information that would help in identity identification should be deleted, since medical secrecy also operates during the pandemic. In addition, questions were raised about the forced hospitalization of patients with a registered diagnosis or suspicion of a new coronavirus infection caused by COVID-19. Quarantine or observation is one of the possible methods of sanitary protection associated with a set of restrictive measures provided for by law. The restriction of certain rights in this case will be legal. The violation of rights can be said when the goals and measures of influence are disproportionate.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC RISK

28-43 404
Abstract
In this article, based on a systematic analysis of modern methods for analyzing the risk of emergency situations, methods are proposed for assessing the socio-economic significance of measures aimed at improving the protection of the population and territories from emergencies. New approaches to the selection of measures aimed at improving the protection of the population and territories from emergency situations using target indicators for assessing their effectiveness are considered.

RISK MANAGEMENT

44-53 3473
Abstract
In order to assess the risks and determine the optimal actions to ensure the safety of work at chemical and petrochemical plants, a method has been developed that allows identifying operations that require optimization and the introduction of additional protective measures. A brief overview of the key factors that affect the safety and effectiveness of operations is provided. The method is based on the concept of zero injuries — Vision Zero, which assumes that absolutely all accidents at work can be prevented. This method is necessary for a deeper analysis of production operations and improving the level of safety protection.
54-63 721
Abstract
The purpose of this work is to identify possible ways of organizational risk management development as part of the evolution of the planetary socio-ecological system (socio-ecosystem). For this purpose, the planetary socio-ecosystem was considered as an object from the point of view of the general theory of systems. It was shown that the deviation of this system from the stationary state, which is accompanied by sharp fluctuations and bifurcations, leads to the need to adapt the risk management activity in organizations to external conditions. As a result of the analysis, two perspective directions for the development of risk management in organizations where identifi ed. The first direction is based on the method of reducing external risks by controlled influence on the parameters of the planetary system. The general theory of systems states that a controlled approximation of a system to a stationary state is possible by self-organization of system`s elements. Based on research on the economy of common resources and the representation of organizations as elements of the planetary socio-ecosystem, as well as on the analysis of recent international trends in achieving sustainable development, a conclusion about the relevance of organizations ‘ participation in cooperative activities and self-organization in terms of external risk management was made. In order to assist organizations in conducting activities in the bifurcation area the second perspective direction of the risk management development — the concept of resilience — was considered and proposed for practical usage. Expanding the current practice of risk management in organizations to the proposed areas will ensure the appropriate level of adaptability and stability of organizations in relation to the high dynamics of external risks.
64-75 665
Abstract
The article aims to describe the method of risk calculating in the enterprise’s production chains; the basis of this method is the principle of its resources protection sufficiency; this principle, in turn, is one of integral parts of the developed approach to ensuring the safe operation of the enterprise in its interactions with the external environment of the types market and infl uence; the approach applying results the substantiation of the criterion of enterprise resources protection sufficiency in its supply chain; based on the developed enterprise math model, a quantitative filling of the terms “sufficiency of protection of enterprise resources”, “risk”, “threat” in these interactions are given; an example of calculating risk in the production chain of resource suppliers is given; the results presented in this article increase the enterprise management efficiency by reducing uncertainties in its functions performance due to the quantitative specification of risks and threats to its activity.
76-85 1063
Abstract
The article considers the essence of the risk from transport companies and the internal affairs authorities in transport, where special attention is paid to the specifics of their activities. Thus, the main difference of risk in enterprises is the possibility of obtaining a loss or profit from the implementation of a planned action or decision, and in the activities of the internal affairs of transport in the likelihood of non-compliance with law enforcement and crime against property in rail, air, sea (river) transport. Transport risks are identified in the operation of both transport companies and the transport police to prevent crimes against property. Their performance depends on the management of transport risks. The classification of transport risk we consider smore at the risk of loss or damage to cargo. For operational risk management, the concept of risk passport is introduced and the passport of the risk of theft is considered here, which represents a set of information about the risk area, risk criteria, as well as instructions on the use of the necessary methods to manage or minimize risk. Graphic image of passport theft risk makes it possible to visually summarize all information about this risk. The modern concept of risk management treats risks comprehensively, such a direction has been called integrated risk management. The algorithm we have introduced to apply an integrated risk management system to traffic police using a risk passport includes the following blocks: analysis of incoming information about criminal assaults on the result of risk detection over a set period of time using risk management soft ware; the identifi ed risk is analyzed by managers who determine its level (risk-free, acceptable, critical and catastrophic levels); depending on the level, risk management activities are offered.
86-95 542
Abstract
The article considers the manifestations of the phenomenon of economic risk in the socioeconomic ecosystems of industrial enterprises, examines and differentiates the pragmatic and cultural aspects of the concept of "economic risk management". In terms of methodology, the study is based on the operational theory of risk management, and also uses tools to describe the organizational culture of risk management. Pragmatic and cultural differences in the characteristics of economic risk are identified at the level of stable forms of management activity with the involvement of the main provisions of the operational theory of risk management. The phenomenon of risk is considered in the ontological space as an artificial category of activity of industrial enterprises and other economic agents that form a socio-economic ecosystem. This phenomenon is studied as a specific form of social communication associated with the desire to assess the uncertain future in the present time, mainly from the point of view of analysis and management of the level of economic risk in the enterprise.


ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)