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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 16, No 6 (2019)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-6

COLUMN EDITOR

8-9 601
Abstract
About Increasing the Role of Risk Management in Strategic Planning.

RISKS OF STRATEGIC PLANNING

10-25 870
Abstract

The article analyzes the problems and risks of strategic planning at the federal level of the XXI century.

The author declare no conflict of interest.

26-37 704
Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of factors that inhibit the creation of knowledge and technologies, as well as usage and diffusion in the Russian economy and that pose the threats to the technological development of the country. The study is based on the system economic theory methodology, which involve system analysis methods studying the economy and society as an integrated socio-economic system in its unity and mutual dependence of key subsystems. This approach is aimed to receive evaluation reflecting the real static and dynamic picture of all sectors that contribute to the creation of innovation: production, monetary systems, institutional environment, science, education and society. The risk zones are depicted in the diagram of the strategic planning and governance inherent Russian practice. From a systemic point of view, the conclusions are that the objective system evaluation should be in the basis of the strategy. Inadequate quality of planning, ignoring system linkages and interactions in decision-making, use of incorrect data as well as other defective governance actions pose a significant threat to the development of the Russian Federation. The directions for further research in order to reduce the risks of technological development strategy are proposed in the paper. The proposals concern improvement in both evaluation methods and the metrics of the socio-economic system characteristics, which can give the truth picture of the system, and the concept of strategizing changes in non-stationary economy.

The author declare no conflict of interest.

STRATEGIC AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

38-49 1305
Abstract

The current decade is a period of origination and manifestation of the game-changing strategic challenges and threats as well as the geopolitical, socio-economic, institutional, and technological risks that arise from the development and penetration of the digital technologies. The World economy is entering the new stage of its development that implies that the human production, exchange, distribution, and consumption activities are directly connected with the formation, processing, and application of large amounts of information and knowledge that exist in a digital format. The concepts "The digital economy" and "The knowledge-based economy" are becoming inseparable and this has an impact on the digital transformation of the institutions of public administration. The digital technologies are increasing the capabilities of the State to respond the global challenges but at the same time generating the new strategic risks, especially institutional and technological ones. Furthermore, the possible directions of the digital evolution of the State are still discussing, not defined. The paper deals with the concept of the digital transformation of the institutions of the public administration with the risks being taken into account. Conclusion that optimizing the above strategic risks is a critical national priority.

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

 

50-59 860
Abstract

The article is devoted to the consideration of geopolitical challenges for the analysis of geoenvironmental risks (GERs) in the hydrocarbon development of the Arctic territory. Geopolitical risks (GPRs), like GERs, can be transformed into opposite external environment factors of oil and gas industry facilities in the form of additional opportunities or threats, which the authors identify in detail for each type of risk. This is necessary for further development of methodological base of expert methods for GER management in the context of the implementational proposed two-stage model of the GER analysis taking to account GPR for the improvement of effectiveness making decisions to ensure optimal operation of the facility oil and gas industry and minimize the impact on the environment in the geopolitical conditions of the Arctic.

The authors declare no conflict of interest

RISKS OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS

60-77 1076
Abstract

This paper describes the method of project risk analysis based on design thinking and explores the possibility of its application for industrial investment projects. Traditional and suggested approaches to project risk management have been compared. Several risk analysis artifacts have been added to the standard list of artifacts. An iterative procedure for the formation of risk analysis artifacts has been developed, with the purpose of integrating the risk management process into strategic and prompt decision-making during project management. A list of tools at each stage of design thinking for risk management within the framework of real investment projects has been proposed. The suggested technology helps to determine project objectives and content and adapt them in regards to possible; as well as to implement measures aimed at reducing these risks, to increase productivity of the existing risk assessment and risk management tools, to organize effective cooperation between project team members, and to promote accumulation of knowledge about the project during its development and implementation.

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC RISK

78-89 666
Abstract

Objectives. The object of the research is the process of assessing the social development risks, which involves ranking the objects according to their degree of exposure to risk factors. As the subject of the study we designate the main weaknesses of the risk assessment methodology using risk index ratings in various fields based on a research of Russian and foreign scientific and practical experience. The purpose of the study is the formation of a set of theoretical principles that form the ground for improving the risk assessment methodology based on the construction of integrated risk index ratings.

Methods. The main research method was a comparative analysis of the research results of foreign and Russian scientists on risk assessment in general and the formation of integrated risk indices in particular.

Results. As a result of the study, the most significant weaknesses inherent in the risk assessment methodology were identified, and the failings of the use of risk index ratings for risk assessment from different angles were specified. Some identified failings are illustrated by the example of the UN World Risk Index calculation methodology. Recommendations to eliminate identified failings are formed, ordered in a logical sequence.

Conclusions. As a result of the study it was established that the formulation of goals and objectives of assessing the social development risks substantially determines the assessment methodology and affects its results. In the case when the use of integrated risk index ratings meets the goals and objectives of the assessment, the subject of the assessment should take into account a number of fundamental methodological provisions that can significantly affect the assessment results, their objectivity and the adequacy to the problem being solved.

The authors declare no conflict of interest

90-100 696
Abstract

The relevance of this issue has been raised due to the demand for a forecast of the needs of the financial and economic segment of the market in the content and models of financial literacy in the process of achieving the national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024. The article presents an analysis of current issues of improving financial literacy, provides a detailed description of the main target groups on the basis of the Strategy for Improving Financial Literacy in the Russian Federation for the period 2017—2023, and presents the results pilot studies of a condition of financial literacy, financial competent behavior of the population and determining from factors on the example of one of the main target groups — school students.

The authors declare no conflict of interest.



ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)