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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 22, No 6 (2025)
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COLUMN EDITOR

RISK MANAGEMENT

10-21 17
Abstract

The purpose of the study is to substantiate the possibility and effectiveness of using energy storage systems to reduce the risks of energy supply during the construction of oil and gas facilities in isolated energy zones, as well as to develop an approach to the economic model for their implementation.

Methods. The paper used the analysis of actual data of operation of diesel generator sets at a construction site in Eastern Siberia, simulated the daily schedule of loads and electricity generation, and also calculated the parameters of energy storage systems to compensate for peak loads. Applied methods of technical and economic analysis and risk-based approach based on domestic and international studies on energy risk management.

Results. Optimal capacity of energy storage systems is determined, which provides for compensation of peak loads and reduction of total required power generation. The economic model built on the basis of the lease of industrial drives of the Russian company showed significant potential savings in the implementation of infrastructure projects in remote regions, including a reduction in fuel costs. For the model, parameters, terms of self-sufficiency and profit in the implementation of the project are calculated and given.

Conclusion. The use of energy storage systems in the construction of facilities in remote regions helps to reduce fuel and logistics risks, increase the stability of energy supply and financial stability of contractors. The developed model, taking into account the possibility of renting industrial drives of a Russian company, can be scaled to other industries and facilities - from energy-intensive industries to offshore platforms and settlements with unstable power supply, supporting the goals of low-carbon development and import substitution.

22-34 13
Abstract

New threats to the safety of oil facilities are the result of technological, geopolitical and environmental changes in the modern world. Geopolitical conflicts and terrorism, jamming of satellites and communications, threats of unmanned aerial vehicles are among the key modern threats.

This article substantiates the need to switch from traditional security models (survivability, sustainability) to an evolutionary antifragile system. This article discusses the concept of antifragility in relation to fuel and energy sector facilities. Antifragility is a concept that can be used for any system, including the design and management of facilities in the fuel and energy complex. The application of this concept is aimed at ensuring that the fuel and energy complex facility not only withstands threats, but also develops, improves and strengthens in response to these threats (stress factors).

The article provides examples of the implementation of the concept of antifragility in the world's largest oil companies Saudi Aramco, Shell and ExxonMobil are given. The impact on the insurance sector UAV attacks on fuel and energy facilities in the period 2020-2025 is reflected. Prospects for the development of insurance mechanisms in combination with antifragile principles for responding to UAV attacks are proposed.

LEGAL RISK

36-45 53
Abstract

The article examines the problem of methodological support for the analysis of legal risks in enterprises of the energy sector. The aim is to develop and test a methodology for the quantitative assessment of legal risks based on a composite index. The methodology includes constructing a system of weighted indices, differentiated normalization of heterogeneous indicators, accounting for cascade effects, and visualization of the obtained data.

RISK ASSESSMENT

46-55 16
Abstract

The purpose of the study is to develop effective methods for quantitative risk assessment in conditions of increasing complexity of technical systems and increasing the negative impact of natural factors.

The article presents a comprehensive analysis of modern methodological approaches to assessing the risk of natural and technical systems. Theoretical and practical aspects of emergency forecasting are considered. The existing methodological approaches to risk research were systematized, as a result of which four key groups were identified: theoretical, statistical, heuristic and complex. Advantages and disadvantages of each approach are analyzed in detail, a typology of risk assessment methods is presented, including computational-analytical, statistical and expertassessment methods.

FINANCIAL RISK

56-70 19
Abstract

The purpose of the work is to identify current risks and prospects for the use of decentralized (cryptocurrencies and stablecoins) and centralized national digital currencies (CBDC) in the system of interstate cross-border transfers. The study is based on data from reports and experiments of leading international financial organizations – the World Bank, the Bank for International Settlements, and the International Monetary Fund. The analysis of the accumulated experience of cross-border transfers in the world practice has made it possible to identify currently popular transfer channels, assess their volume, ratio and dynamics, as well as identify trends in the foreseeable future. The use of blockchain and digital currencies in the system of cross-border transfers is studied by the authors in decentralized and centralized segments, which makes it possible to specify the motivation, problems and prospects of using innovative financial instruments in interstate relations.

In addition to the prospects and effects of the introduction of digital currencies in cross-border transfers, the study highlights the possible risks associated with this process, in particular, the risks of destabilization of the financial system, «digital dollarization» and the potential weakening of the monetary sovereignty of emerging market countries, within the framework of multicurrency agreements on central securities. The study focuses on the sanctions realities relevant to the Russian economy, and examines the potential for using multicurrency national digital currencies and digital financial assets in trade and economic relations within the EAEU and BRICS.

NATURAL RISK

72-86 14
Abstract

The study considers active faults and areas of their dynamic influence, where dangerous geodynamic processes and phenomena develop due to seismotectonic activity. They can lead to natural disasters, and authorities introduce natural and natural-technogenic emergencies at sites and territories. For one reason or another, areas of active faults quite often fall within the competence of economic development, the creation of linear and point production infrastructure: pipelines, power lines, industrial and social facilities, urban and agricultural lands, etc. For designed and already functioning enterprises and development zones, the legislation of the Russian Federation establishes the need for a strict assessment of the impact on the environment, including the risk of any economic and other human activity. Therefore, active faults are a formidable factor of natural hazard and risk of nature management. Their study from this angle is rare in scientific literature today, which determines the relevance of our work.

The article presents the methodological foundations for studying active faults. For this purpose, some postulates of structural geomorphology are additionally clarified and specified. It is proposed to subdivide the danger of active faults into hidden and obvious, localized/sudden and diffuse/constant, directed at humans, man-made or the surrounding natural environment. The tasks and prospects of research in this area are defined, a connecting thread is drawn between the development of the relief of fault zones, dangerous geomorphological and active geodynamic processes and the entire natural-territorial complex, landscape and economic and household environment. Active faults are a serious factor of natural hazard. It can actually cause the activation of dangerous geodynamic processes in scale and strength, the emergence of a risk of nature management for humans, the economy and territories, economic infrastructure. The question of how they can influence the level of seismic hazard is considered.

СLIMATE RISK

88-97 13
Abstract

The increase in the number of natural disasters and the assessment of the consequences of their occurrence confirm the relevance of the problem of climate risk insurance. This industry direction is widely developing in the European and North American insurance markets and is accompanied by research activities of leading regional insurers. In domestic conditions, climate risk insurance is not developed widely enough, and Russian insurers have practically no own experience of analytical work in this area.

The purpose of the study is to describe and partially systematize the experience of research activities of leading foreign insurers in the field of climate risk assessment for the further development of specialized insurance products.

In the article, using traditional research methods, a selection of possible scenarios of natural disasters for Russia was made, factors that impede and potentially contribute to the development of climate risk insurance were assessed, related state acts were described and best practices of leading foreign insurers were formed. The final part of the study provides measures to promote the development of climate insurance in Russia.



ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)