COLUMN EDITOR
SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECURITY
The article discusses the issues of determining the criteria of social security of the region and assessing the risks of regional development. Criteria for assessing the social security of the region are highlighted, a system of these criteria is developed. The purpose of this article is to analyze approaches to assessing the level of social security of the region and to assess the level of social security of the region. The objectives of the work are to determine the list of indicators of social security of the region and the formation of a system of indicators that allow assessing social security in terms of the standard of living of the population of the region and demographic indicators of the region. The basis of the developed system is the use of statistical data and grouping of indicators based on causal relationships between indicators. Based on the results of the study, an analysis of the social security of the Kirov region was carried out on the basis of the presented criteria.
The article develops a model of multiple dependence of the influence of the main indicators on the economic performance of industrial enterprises in order to assess the risks of economic security. The initial data matrix consists of 14 indicators. The initial data are standardized and correlation and regression analysis is carried out. The equations for two functions are compiled, the main indicators are highlighted and their impact on the main economic results of the enterprise is considered.
ECOLOGICAL RISKS
The article shows that the mass use of industrial nitrogen fertilizers has doubled the nitrogen flows in its global biogeochemical cycle, while transforming it into an agrogeochemical one, with many environmental consequences. Th e article discusses the ecological risks associated with the use of nitrogen fertilizers, such as the accumulation of nitrates in groundwater, vegetable products, in the atmosphere. It is shown that it is necessary to reduce nitrogen losses during the cultivation of agricultural crops, while ensuring its suffi cient resources to ensure food security. Methods of ecological risk management in modern agroecosystems are proposed.
ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS
A comparative assessment and analysis of risk of environmental management across the African Union has been carried out. It is mainly characterized by two types of natural hazards: lithospheric — earthquakes, volcanism and related processes, and hydrometeorological — droughts, floods, accompanying landslides and soil degradation caused by global climate change and anthropogenic changes in the landscapes. A great hazard for tourist business, which is a basis of economy of island states with high enough level of development, is a sharp rise in the level of World Ocean as a result of melting of glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland. The sector most exposed to natural hazards in the African Union is agriculture, which suffers from soil erosion and degradation, droughts, desertifi cation and landslides. Vast areas of the African continent are at low risk of exploitation because they are uninhabited and undeveloped. Th ese are pristine areas with naturally developed landscapes where extreme natural processes and phenomena certainly occur, but there is simply no one and nothing to affect them. Good disaster resilience is related to the overall high level of economic development of the countries — Seychelles, Mauritius, South Africa, the political will of the governance structures and well-established security systems — Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, and the growing infl uence of private capital in recent years on national disaster protection policies — Nigeria, Ghana, Cape Verde. Countries with low disaster resilience are the poorest countries in the world, with widespread famine, epidemics, forced migration due to ongoing military conflicts and coups d’état, poverty, etc. Correlation and regression analysis for the countries of the African Union has shown the dependence of the risk of environmental management coeffi cient on nominal GDP per capita per year, although the correlation coefficientis rather low. The highest risk is observed in the poorest countries that are unable to cope with natural disasters on their own, where natural hazards are widespread — Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi, Somalia and Eritrea. Low risk is ensured in countries with developed economies and eff ective government — Mauritius, South Africa, Algeria, Tunisia, etc.
RISK MANAGEMENT
Goals. A comprehensive author’s study of the eff ectiveness of financing transactions in the real sector of the economy using a currency option with a barrier suspensive condition in conditions of economic imbalance. Assessment of the Russian practice of insuring market risks through
over-the-counter derivative financial instruments.
Methods. The study used a mathematical model of Rayner and Rubinstein were used to calculate the fair value of options.
Results. The sale of a call option of the «foreign exchange delivery option with a barrier condition» type allows the company to receive an option premium, but at the same time the company assumes an unlimited risk of losses. If the transaction is concluded by the parties for speculative purposes, then the symmetry and balance of the positions is achieved due to the amount of the premium paid by the buyer. The recommendations given in the article on the use of currency barrier options and the assessment of their value will improve the efficiency of market risk management systems in real sector companies.
Conclusions. In the period from 2013 to 2018, companies actively used derivative financial instruments in their practice, both for the purpose of hedging or obtaining an option premium, and for the purpose of reducing the cost of ruble financing. Incorrect assessment of their risks, insufficient experience in the use and evaluation of derivatives led to the fact that by the end of 2014—2018, in fact, most of the largest Russian companies suff ered a loss from the use of derivative financial instruments. The competent use of derivatives for the purposes of hedging market risks will allow companies to
avoid losses in conditions of increased risk.
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)