COLUMN EDITOR
REGIONAL SECURITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK
The article is a continuation of several publications by the authors in the journal "Issues of Risk Analysis". It is aimed at identifying the dynamics of environmental responsibility of oil and gas industry facilities in the Russian Arctic using the rating approach for 2014—2019. The results of the rating analysis revealed the general and differentiated dynamics of greening of the Arctic oil and gas sector enterprises in three sections: management, operational and information. The leaders of the environmental rating were identified: Sakhalin energy (Sakhalin-2), LUKOIL, Gazprom, and Zarubezhneft.
Irkutsk region in the Siberian region is classified as the most hazardous region with a large number of hazardous industrial facilities and large-scale damage zones. The most significant natural hazards are floods, forest fires, earthquakes, and freezing temperatures. The purpose of this paper is to assess the natural, technogenic, ecological, and complex risks of the territories of the Irkutsk region on the basis of hazard and vulnerability indicators. To assess the risk, an expert method is used based on the heuristic identification of vulnerability and hazard criteria, their expert assessment, definition of weight coefficients, and ranking. To determine the ranking, five hazard categories were identified based on “interval data statistics”. The risk is determined on the basis of a risk matrix that takes into account the vulnerability and hazard indices and allows one to assess both the hazard and the vulnerability of the territory. The following task has been solved: the analysis of the state reports on the state and environmental protection of the Irkutsk region; the selection of indicators of vulnerability for areas in the region and their expert evaluation; the development of vulnerability maps of the region; the definition of weighted composite indicators of hazard areas: natural, technogenic and ecological; the development of the hazard maps of the region; the calculation of natural, technogenic, ecological and integrated risk of areas and constructing the corresponding maps; making a ranking of the territories by the level of risk. The resulting risk maps of territories can be used for strategic planning and decision support to reduce and prevent the risk of territories with resource constraints. The application of the proposed approach allowed us to obtain a refined risk assessment of administrative areas (districts) of the Irkutsk region.
RISK MANAGEMENT
Industrial companies have always paid close attention to the continuity of production and technological processes. Technical and production risks, such as equipment damage, accidents, natural disasters can have a significant impact on production processes, lead to injury to people, environmental pollution. Managing these risks means investing substantial funds in upgrading, repairing and reconstructing assets. However, these investments have different economic effects. Proper prioritization of risks and measures for their management, based on the concept of risk-income, proposed in this article, can significantly improve the efficiency of risk management, reduce the degree of uncertainty, protect the organization from catastrophic damage.
The impact of risks on organizations' performance, the effectiveness of projects and business processes is constantly increasing, and the level of risk is often a determining factor in strategic decision-making. However, according to international statistics, only 16.2% of projects are recognized as successful — performed on time and within the budget, and 52.7% of projects are implemented with an excess of budget, on average by 89%. In order to improve the efficiency of integrated risk management systems, for the first time, an attempt has been made to take into account the synergy, resulting from the digital integration of many heterogeneous elements of the management system and the uncertainties of existing factors into a single socio-economic system based on the priority of the subjective, which are associated with concepts such as non-linearity, uncertainty and randomness. The mutual influence and adjustment the elements of a integrated management system to the purpose and conditions of operation means, that the system relies on a distributed quality and performance assessment, taking into account the uncertainties of existing risk factors. The real transport infrastructure investment project shows the benefits of a synergistic approach and the digital method of integrated bundles, its software implementation on the Microsoft Excel platform in ensuring risk management and achieving the reliability of estimates based on uncertainty and risk.
The article is devoted to the development of the concept of the state to manage its tax risks, based on a systematic approach. The author's concept presupposes the presence of the following elements logically arranged according to the principle "from the general to the particular": 1) mechanisms for managing tax risks, 2) disclosing methodological recommendations, 3) specific proposals for changing legislation. To achieve this goal, the author used general scientific methods (deduction and induction, analysis and synthesis, observation, description, generalization) and private scientific methods of cognition (comparison method, graphical and tabular data presentation methods). We have presented a brief overview of the main tax risks of the Russian Federation in the current economic environment, which are classified in four areas: 1) risks in the field of value added taxation; 2) risks in the field of taxation of profits and income; 3) risks, the source of which is Russia's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union; 4) customs risks. The author presents a general scheme of tax risk management by the state, which includes the context, goals and management strategy. The priority mechanisms for managing the tax risks of the state are formulated on the basis of the presented classification of tax risks. These areas include: introduction of an end-to-end product traceability system; substantiation of taxation methods; joint elimination of tax risks (Federal Tax Service, Federal Customs Service, Ministry of Labor, Federal Service for Financial Monitoring); optimization of tax administration costs on the part of both tax authorities and taxpayers; harmonization of indirect taxation, including duty-free trade; harmonization of international tax rules at the international level; selection of the most effective tools for eliminating multiple taxation. A draft "road map" has been developed to improve the management of state tax risks.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC RISK
The scientific problem of economics “Managing the quality of human life” is formulated on the basis of artificial intelligence, algebra of logic and logical-probabilistic calculus. Managing the quality of human life is represented by managing the processes of his treatment, training and decision making. Events in these processes and the corresponding logical variables relate to the behavior of a person, other persons and infrastructure. The processes of the quality of human life are modeled, analyzed and managed with the participation of the person himself. Scenarios and structural, logical and probabilistic models of managing the quality of human life are given. Special software for quality management is described. The relationship of human quality of life and the digital economy is examined. We consider the role of public opinion in the management of the “bottom” based on the synthesis of many studies on the management of the economics and the state. The bottom management is also feedback from the top management.
PROFESSIONAL RISK
Construction is one of the most dangerous industries, which is in fourth place in terms of industrial injuries. Various harmful industrial factors of the industry cause both occupational diseases and diseases with temporary disability. In this regard, economic losses are — lost profit, payment of sick leave, medical care, rehabilitation measures, as well as loss of efficiency, calculated in millions of person-days per year. Thus, due to the impact of a set of unfavorable factors on workers, on the one hand, there is a decrease in working capacity, a shortening of the terms of full-fledged labor activity, an increase in occupational diseases and injuries, on the other hand, significant economic damage to both the individual organization and the industry as a whole. The specifics of construction activity is that working conditions are usually constantly changing, so the data of a special assessment of working conditions, which is carried out every five years, lose their reliability. It is proposed to conduct continuous monitoring of working conditions at each workplace in order to identify and rank production factors that have the most adverse impact on the health of the employee and further develop appropriate measures to normalize working conditions.
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)