COLUMN EDITOR
RISK MANAGEMENT
The property insurance program developed by the insured determines the main requirements to the conditions, features of the conclusion, execution and termination of the concluded property insurance contracts. When it is implemented for a number of years, when there is a periodic renewal of insurance contracts on standard conditions, the insured has the need to assess the economic effectiveness of such insurance protection, preferably using quantitative indicators. Existing methods of estimating the cost-effectiveness of property insurance programs do not sufficiently take into account the stochastic nature of the insurance process and, in particular, that the resulting losses are subject to extreme type distribution laws studied within the framework of the asymptotic theory of extreme values probabilities. Therefore, for example, it is difficult to adequately assess the economic effectiveness of the property insurance program in a rather frequent situation where the total costs of the insured for paying insurance premiums exceed the total insurance compensation. The proposed statistical method of estimating the economic effectiveness of the property insurance program is based on extreme type distribution functions determined by statistical data, characterizing the claimed losses and insurance compensation paid. The cost effectiveness assessment is carried out using the cost-effectiveness indicator of the property insurance program, which is calculated according to two parameters: the expected share of insurance payments (insurance indemnities) and the premium efficiency coefficient. The expected share of insurance payments is determined by the ratio of mathematical expectations of distribution functions, which characterize the claimed losses and insurance compensation paid. The premium efficiency ratio is the ratio of the gross premium total for the property insurance program, calculated using the function of distributing the claimed losses, and the total amount of premiums paid for the entire period of the property insurance program. Adding up the values of the expected share of insurance payments (insurance indemnities) and the premium efficiency factor taking into account their weights, the value of the economic efficiency indicator of the property insurance program is obtained. The formation of a conclusion on the economic effectiveness of the property insurance program is carried out on the basis of the value of the economic efficiency indicator of the property insurance program according to the proposed scale.
The article aims to find quantitative characteristics of the mechanism of enterprise risk sustenance from the point of view of rivalry between commodity market participants. Our analysis of publications revealed the root cause of the lack of known enterprise control systems, including the “Industry-4”technology: this is the lack of their activities formalization and the lack of resources’ quantity for such a description. The method of this mechanism and rivalry quantitative description based on previously devised enterprise model and published data on the market participants’ activities; using the enterprise math model, math models of various sizes markets with cyclical declines in consumption created and further vector model of rivalry in the market created. A quantitative definition of risks in the enterprise activities is given; owing to what fundamental expression for the moment of the crisis risk appearance found. The obtained quantitative ratios are necessary, significant, and repeatable for various sizes markets, due to which uncertainties in the enterprises control of various infrastructures reduced.
RISKS OF HOUSING AND COMMUNAL SERVICES
The article discusses issues related to the systemic crisis of housing and communal services in Russia, the course of housing and utilities reform, the state of fixed assets of housing and communal services,
The article discusses one of the problems associated with the vulnerability of the population, as well as the personnel of hazardous industries, who are sheltering in protective structures (shelters) in case of emergency threats (emergencies) of a peaceful and military nature. The problem consists in the existing risk of violation of the permissible temperature and humidity parameters of the air in the shelter.
Based on the analysis of the laws of climate and the duration of the period of autonomy of protective structures, methodological approaches to the selection of design parameters of outdoor air for the design of air supply systems of protective structures are substantiated.
To estimate the effectiveness of the selected outdoor air parameters over reduce risk, a criterion is proposed: the probability of not violating the permissible microclimate in the protective structures.
ENVIRONMENTAL AND NATURAL RISK
The article offers a method for assessing the environmental risk in the territories adjacent to the planning zone of emergency protection measures around the NPP. The method is based on simulation modeling of territory pollution, which is formed at the late stage of a radiation accident and zoning of territories by risk, taking into account the characteristics of the population’s life in a potentially dangerous territory. A vector criterion of environmental risk is proposed that allows zoning these territories according to the degree of danger to the population.
A method for assessing the risk of nature management and its mapping in the Russian Federation Districts: federal districts and constituent entities of the Siberian Federal District is proposed. The assessments were carried out for a comprehensive analysis of the Russian Federation Districts as a single administrative-territorial entity according to their own established factors of dangerous natural processes and the parameters of protection against natural disasters. A comparative analysis of the proposed methodology with existing approaches to assessing the risk of hazardous natural processes for the Russian Federation Districts is carried out. The risk of nature management equally depends on both the nature of the danger and the protection against natural disasters, in other words — both on the natural and socio-economic situation in the Russian Federation Districts. In many cases, the indicator of protection against natural disasters even plays a leading role, since its assessment includes current socio-economic characteristics that determine the real ability of management structures to predict and deal with the consequences of natural disasters, as well as psychological indicators, i.e. the will and sequence of actions of managers in making specific decisions on environmental management in a risky environment.
RISK MANAGEMENT CULTURE
Purpose. Disclosure of the peculiarities of the organization of modern training of university students with a risky perception of reality in order to form basic competencies for future professional activities.
Methods. As part of the study, the following were used: the systematization method, the structural analysis method and the numeric rating method.
Results. The peculiarities of riskology training in the construction of an individual educational route are determined, in which the possibility of students independently choosing disciplines to realize their own interests in various fields of knowledge is used. Methods of obtaining risk identification skills from trainees are formulated. It is determined that using the intuitive method of risk formalization is the most accessible and expeditious way to remember the possibility of risks. The need to develop a sustainable habit of assessing risks in the future and in fact is justified. This skill is successfully developed using a numeric rating method. The need to develop an internal rating scale for each student is justified, which is useful for making decisions. Disclosed is a method of assimilating risk analysis skills in dynamics. This allows you to identify the development of forecast estimates in comparison with the fact for each individual risk and compile several risks.
Conclusion. An educational experiment on the introduction of the Riskology discipline for students ofTyumenStateUniversity suggests that they have successfully overcome the stage of high risk of perception of reality that arose during the COVID-19 pandemic. The acquired knowledge and practical skills will ensure a similar perception of other events in their lives and professional activities. It is necessary to fully expand such practices and find an opportunity to supplement educational programs in universities, regardless of their orientation, with disciplines that directly reveal the nature of risk in human life and give them the ability to manage them.
INFORMATION WINDOW
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