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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 17, No 1 (2020)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2020-17-1

COLUMN EDITOR

RISKS OF WATER RESOURCES

10-23 801
Abstract
The article analyzes issues related to the state of the most valuable resource on the planet — water. This is the most important natural resource, without which human activity and life itself are impossible.
24-29 818
Abstract
The possibility of management by risk of surface and underground water sources contamination from soil by herbicide 2,4-D by active coals application was estimated. Active coals absorb the herbicide which is in the soil and its migration in water sources prevent. The effect of sorption by active coals has been established on the content of herbicide in a liquid phase of soil presented by capillary and gravitational moisture.
30-37 957
Abstract
The real state of centralized water treatment systems in the country leads to irrational use of drinking water quality for technological needs, and consequently to hydraulic overloads of water treatment complexes and an increase in environmental risks associated with water resources. the paper offers a fundamentally new technical solution for water treatment, provides information on the results of recent scientific research in the field of analysis and management of risks associated with water resources, this will help specialists in this field to solve real problems in the implementation of innovative scientific developments and apply scientific experience in the practice of environmental risk management.

RISKS OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS

38-57 4558
Abstract
The article presents the results of the study of cost evaluation of a real option for capacity extension of a two-phase liquefied natural gas production project and the economic effect of reserving capacity in the project. The expediency of using the simulation method to solve the problem of assessing the economic efficiency of the project with the real option at different stages of the project cycle is shown. Recommendations are given on using methods for constructing a binomial and a numerical integration models as additional (testing) methods for assessing the economic efficiency of a project with an option at the pre-investment stage.
58-67 1017
Abstract
The article is devoted to the assessment of potential investment risks of the pharmaceutical company “R-Pharm” JSC with the aim of identifying the highest priority risks and developing methods for minimizing them. The relevance of the study is determined by the fact that the pharmaceutical business is characterized by a high degree of social orientation and annually invests $ 140 billion in the development of production and research, which determines the need for a risk-based approach to ensure the return on investment. The subject of this article is the investment risks of pharmaceutical companies, and the subject of research is the domestic pharmaceutical company “R-Pharm”. In order to assess the potential investment risks of “R-Pharm” JSC, the authors used elements of simulation modeling and system analysis. The proposed methods to minimize key investment risks are aimed at improving the efficiency of investment activities and is recommended as an element of the strategic planning of the company.

RISK MANAGEMENT

68-77 1332
Abstract
Project success depends on the ability to respond to risks and make correct decisions in a timely manner. The project approach provides a better framework for implementing a new management system into the company’s business processes. The risk management framework developed by the company comprises a risk management infrastructure, a set of standards, human resources, and a risk management information system. To improve staff compliance, it is necessary to provide training and to communicate the goals of the project effectively. It is also important to develop a motivation system because well trained and motivated staff are able to work more efficiently.

CREDIT RISK

78-89 2019
Abstract
Under conditions of demand for credit resources growing in Russian economy the importance of credit risks assessment and their influence on the credit organizations efficiency is increased. Empirical studies show that credit risks in the banking today are increasing nonlinearly relative to the main characteristics of the credit — the level of credit risk, credit terms, interest rate. Therefore, the formation of the most acceptable from the point of view of risk reducing of the bank’s credit portfolio is a scientifically based and practically important problem. The aim of the work is to justify the need for and develop a new mechanism for managing the bank's credit portfolio, ensuring its diversification and reduction of credit risks. The materials of the study were the statistical data of the Bank of Russia and Rosstat. Methods used in the work are: system analysis, control theory, statistical data processing and operational research. A mechanism for managing the quality of a bank credit portfolio is proposed, featuring a combination of quantitative and qualitative criteria for assessing the quality of the credit portfolio and allow to monitor of the credit portfolio, to make decisions on approving or rejecting a credit application in accordance with the permissible values of risk factors. A model has been developed for optimizing the structure of the credit portfolio, which makes it possible to form an optimal ratio of long-term and short-term credits, ensuring the maximum yield of the credit portfolio taking into account credit risk in the context of various credit policy types. A practical importance of the investigation are the positive results of the implementation of the proposed mechanism and model of credit portfolio management into the credit organization, ensuring the growth of its profitability and promoting an increase in competitiveness.

ECONOMIC SECURITY

90-99 1531
Abstract

The work purpose — systematization and typification of actions of subjects of the Federal risk management system (further — FRMS) on the organization of counteraction to sources (subjects) of risks and threats.

System approach, methods of conceptual modeling, scenario modeling, program and target planning are used. For the solution of private tasks it is offered to use imitating modeling, optimization methods, the game theory.

The technique defines the main standard types of activity and operations which are expedient for carrying out for counteraction to sources of threats and risks. The set of actions is divided into four types: blocking, asymmetrical answer, demonstration of force, direct influence. The main groups of corrective actions concerning subjects of various type are considered: natural and legal entities, residents and nonresidents. Accounting of motives of activity of subjects of threats and risks is provided. Types of motives are considered. The general scheme of organization of events on neutralization of sources of threats and risks is offered. Criteria for selection of corrective actions, including optimization of expenses, a possibility of response, various side and system effects are considered.

The scientific basis of creation of regulations of organization of events of neutralization of threats and risks, the organizations of training courses, carrying out scenario modeling and creation of the appropriate human-machine technologies of development of counteraction to subjects of threats is developed.

DISCUSSION CLUB

100-108 857
Abstract
The conditions for solving the problems caused by the appearance in practice of unknown objects that generate some interfering effects on the objects under study are considered. The necessity of the introduction of artificial entities to overcome the emerging problems is substantiated. The cases of manifestation of the risk phenomenon, methods of its identification and evaluation of the characteristics of the impact on the real socio-economic processes are considered in detail.
109-111 587
Abstract
In order to increase the efficiency of socio-economic systems managing, R. Kachalov proposed introducing the fictitious concept of the “risk phenomenon”. This article shows that, this proposal, firstly, contradicts the scientific principle of Occam’s razor, and secondly, it is a methodological error. In addition, the interpretation by R. Kachalov of the relationship between the concepts of “uncertainty” and “economic risk” is debatable.


ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)