The article is devoted to the issues of geoecology and geopolitics in the Arctic. The authors reveal the need to consider geopolitical challenges in the analysis of geoecological risks (GER) of oil and gas development of the Arctic region. This is due to the intersection here of the strategic interests of several States and their focus to prove the inability of Russia to ensure environmental safety in the development of Arctic fi elds. Th e subject of GER is used as a geopolitical tool against Russia due to the probability of it becoming a key player in the region. The authors propose a model for the analysis of GER, which is based on critical loads (CL) of acidity of pollutants and includes 2 stages: 1) the stage of quantitative assessment of GER, which allows to calculate not only the magnitude of the projected changes in the state of the Arctic ecosystems, but also the probability of their occurrence; 2) the stage of management of GER taking into account geopolitical factors, assuming a qualitative expert assessment, which is a procedure for making a management decision to achieve acceptable levels of the total GER.

The problem of forecasting and assessing the condition of underground pipelines laid in the cryolithozone is among the most urgent, priority areas of fundamental and applied research, as the violation of their work aff ects the security of the region. The real danger for underground pipelines laid in the cryolithozone is the change in the state of frozen soil around the pipeline, which can lead to uneven subsidence or buckling of the soil and, as a result, to bending and damage to the pipeline. One of the methods of detection and identifi cation of dangerous geocryological processes is geotechnical monitoring, in which the state of the natural and technical system is estimated as a result of various surveys. Geotechnical monitoring materials are heterogeneous, dependent on many factors, interrelated data. As a result of the analysis of literature, statistical data on accidents and failures of similar pipelines, experts ‘ knowledge, the factors (concepts) obtained from the materials of geotechnical monitoring and aff ecting the dynamics of geocryological processes aff ecting the pipeline route were determined. Analysis of such weakly structured data is associated with many diffi culties and can be performed using cognitive modeling methods and technologies. In this paper we consider the evaluation of the probability of activation of geocryological processes in the pipeline section and ranking of pipeline sections according to the degree of danger of geocryological processes using fuzzy logic and geotechnical monitoring data. The proposed model is performed in Fuzzy Logic MATLAB using the Mamdani algorithm. The results show that the proposed model can be used as a tool for the analysis of geocryological risks in the problems of ranking sections of the long-distance trunk pipeline in terms of the degree of danger on permafrost soils.

The article examines the problems and risks associated with the implementation of the annual northern importation of fuel and goods to the regions of the Far North of Russia, providing vital activity for located here cities and settlements.

The problem of sustainable development of industrial territories is considered with using a nonzero risk concept of accidents and catastrophes. Th e mathematical models for risk assessment were chosen for the information system of territorial risk management and safety. The purpose of the work is to identify and analyze basic technological risks for the information system of territorial risk management and safety (IST RMS) of the Krasnoyarsk territory. This information system provides making decision on the implementation of measures aimed at reducing the risks of sustainable development. The following tasks are set in the work: determination of the basic technospheric risks; calculation and analyzing risk of anthropogenic emergencies on the example of the Krasnoyarsk territory; safety analysis of the region. To achieve the purpose of this work were used probabilistic-statistical research methods. The relevance of the work is determined by the need to implement a national safety strategy at the regional level through risk assessment and analysis. The result of the work is an assessment of technological risks and a generalized security analysis of the municipalities and regions in the Krasnoyarsk territory. We obtained the basic development risks and algorithms for assessing territorial safety are determined using statistical analysis, ranges of individual, collective, material and social risks in an anthropogenic emergency. The classifying of territories according to the degree of anthropogenic hazard was carried out. Based on the obtained results, we conclude that in order to achieve acceptable risk values, it is necessary to use an integrated system approach to multifunctional monitoring of territories.

This paper presents an approach to the comprehensive analysis of territorial risk factors for estimating and managing the natural and technogenic safety based on taking into account the maximum number of factors aff ecting the possibility of occurrence and scale of hazard events. The authors describe the principles of information support of the assessment of territorial risks based on the creation of information resources and the application of modern technologies for consolidation and analysis of monitoring data.

Subject and topic. Currently, the decrease in payments on foreign debts and a decrease in imports have an impact on the demand in the foreign exchange market. As a result, a situation has arisen due to the actions of the Bank of Russia, caused by threats of sanctions that provoked the absence of excessive demand and adequate supply in the foreign exchange market and led to a decrease in ruble exchange rate fl uctuations due to oil price movements.
The subject of research is to determine the role of oil prices in the formation of monetary policy, which can be a key driver of economic growth.
Objective. Identifi cation of exchange rate management practices with the search for the relationship between the current account of the balance of payments and the volatility of the national currency exchange rate.
Research methods, the main provisions. Methods used grouping, comparing and summarizing economic indicators to study the characteristics and trends of the monetary policy of China, South Korea and Latin American countries.
A critical analysis of the various points of view of leading scientists on the negative or positive impact of the exchange rate on the development of the economy was carried out. At the same time, it is interesting to analyze the views of individual economists that the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices has recently largely decreased.
The main results of the study. Determination of the theoretical relationship between the price of oil and the exchange rate, based on the shock component, either in oil prices or in the exchange rate, with testing the response of the economic variable to this shock.
Main conclusions. It was concluded that in the conditions of the economic situation of the last decade, the main problem of export-oriented and import-oriented countries is the imbalance of the current account of the balance of payments, as well as its relationship, primarily with the prices of export goods.

The article considers the existing methods of risk analysis in the design of physical protection systems. It is noted that in the expert method vulnerability assessed integrally, that does not guarantee the principle of equal strength, vulnerability elements of physical protection are considered without regard to the vulnerability of the object itself, and parameters of the model of the intruder, not taking into account such factors as catalysts and inhibitors of the threat. Noted that to improve the adequacy of physical protection required the formation of a databank of security threats and vulnerabilities.