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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 15, No 5 (2018)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-5

COLUMN EDITOR

ECONOMIC SAFETY

6-15 3294
Abstract
The relevance of the regional management of the economic sphere due to the existing economic problems in the country, when the regions are responsible for the significant part of the socio- economic obligations to the population. Therefore, proper management of the economy of the region depends on the well-being of the population, development of regional infrastructure, the possibility of further economic growth and development, social stability in society. Sustainable development of regional socio-economic systems is impossible without an adequate level of economic security of the region. The level of economic security of the region is primarily assessment of the socio-economic processes that reflect the essence of economic security, consisting of a set of interrelated indicators. According to most economists, analyzing the economic security issues, forming the basis of this set of indicators acts as a close relationship with the concept of security risk category and category of threat.

NATURAL AND MAN-MADE SAFETY

16-25 596
Abstract

This paper presents a method of integral analytical estimation of the natural and anthropogenic safety of the territories which provides the formation of a complex indicator based on multidimensional analytical modelling of the state of environment and technosphere objects. The basic principles of creation of a geographically-oriented safety standard and algorithm of calculating an integral assessment of natural and anthropogenic safety of the territories are proposed here. The practical result of the work is an implementation of suggested method for estimation of the natural and anthropogenic safety of the Krasnoyarsk territory.

ENVIRONMENTAL AND HEALTH RISKS

26-37 630
Abstract

The article shows the results of the analysis of the environmental situation in the city of Obninsk, formed as a result of the current and previous activities of industrial enterprises, including the nuclear ones. In the course of the research, the data on federal, regional and object monitoring systems for emissions and the state of the natural environments in terms of their contamination with technogenic products with radiation and toxic effects on human health was collected, analyzed and systematized.

Particular attention is paid to air pollution due to the significant contribution of the inhalation component to the entry of harmful substances into the human body. The content of pollutants in the air in the city was identified by monitoring results and the distribution calculation of surface concentrations. The quality of surface water and soil was also analyzed. A comparative assessment of radiation and chemical risks for the population of Obninsk was carried out. Based on the obtained values of potential risks, the leading factors in the formation of the technogenic burden on the population were identified.

The conducted assessment and the analysis of risks of anthropogenic origin can be used in ranking the factors of possible impact on public health. Also, the results of environmental studies using math simulation can be useful for enhancement the existing monitoring system in order to ensure the environmental safety of the studied region.

RISK OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS

38-45 468
Abstract

The article presents the scheme of the model of urban infrastructure sustainability assessment under the impact of damaging means. The calculation of forces and means using the energy method was made and the transport task was solved.

RISK MANAGEMENT

46-55 2266
Abstract
The article discusses economic risks as a form of uncertainty actualization that characterizes the management decisions quality. An approach to modeling and managing the company’s risks which based on a step-by-step process of identifying the most significant risks and their factors on the basis of simulation modeling and developing management decisions to minimize the economic loss and to minimize the frequency of risk events when it is impossible to completely prevent risks is proposed. This approach was applied in the transport company and demonstrated en economic effect of its implementation.
56-67 2105
Abstract

The need to assess risks when implementing a project to create a corporate data warehouse in a bank is due to a number of factors. When assessing the risk, there is uncertainty about the likelihood of its occurrence, and in what effect it will have on the project. When assessing risks, there is uncertainty about the likelihood of their occurrence and the impact they will have on the project. Risk assessment before the start of the project will help to plan the project budget in the light of unforeseen expenses. In the article is presented the risks classification on the IT project in accordance with the subject area, which is a source of risk. The authors suggest a new approach to risk management in the implementation of the IT project to create a corporate data warehouse in a bank that not only reduces the impact of many risks, but also identifies new risks associated with its implementation. To identify and categorize potential risks and understand their relationships, a risk linkage map has been constructed. Using the method of solution analysis, an integrated risk assessment was designed. In order to effectively monitor risks, it was suggested to analyze the dynamics of the main indicators of risk assessment using data visualization in MS Excel that allows you to adjust the action in the event of unforeseen circumstances.

68-75 665
Abstract

The activity of any enterprise is always associated with risk. This is especially true of hydropower enterprises, since they work in the conditions of renewable energy sources, which are directly dependent on nature. This necessitates the introduction of the concept of risk management, which will take into account risk factors in the process of developing and approving management decisions.

Hydroelectric power plants play an important role in ensuring the required quality of electrical supply, participating in regulating voltage and frequency, covering the uneven part of daily load schedules, guaranteeing measured operation modes of nuclear and thermal power plants, increasing the safety and economy of operation of the final cycles load, performing the function of a temporary emergency and operational power reserve.

The purpose of this article is to analyze the characteristics of risk management in hydropower, as well as to justify the development and feasibility of introducing the concept of risk management in hydropower.

DISCUSSION CLUB

76-95 877
Abstract

The article gives the main definitions and discusses the components of the management of struc- turally complex systems in economics. On the basis of the analysis of ephemeral methods and objects of management, ephemeral managers, the ephemeral educational system, the ephemeral economic and academic science we have made the conclusion that it is possible to deal with the crisis only using new intellectual knowledge in economy.

The perspectives of digital economy, the criteria and the objects of digital management of struc- turally complex systems in economy are considered. Management objects include: government bodies, socio-economic systems, safe space of the population and enterprises. System manage- ment criteria are safety and quality criteria.

For the purposes of digital management of structurally complex systems (SCS) in economy the following types of intellectual knowledge have been proposed: new types of Boolean events- propositions, scenarios of system failure risk, new types of logical probabilistic (LP) risk models, examples of the research of systems. The techniques of quantitative LP-analysis, LP-risk manage- ment of systems, LP-assessment of system quality management have been described.

For the purposes of digital management of SCS in economy we have created special software complexes, the training course for students, economists and teachers, as well as the scheme of the computer network for digital management.



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ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)