Preview

Issues of Risk Analysis

Advanced search
Vol 15, No 3 (2018)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-3

COLUMN EDITOR

NATURAL RISK

6-21 650
Abstract

The article considers the problems of increasing the number and scale of extreme weather events in the world and inRussia, as well as measures to reduce damage from their manifestation.

GEOECOLOGICAL RISKS

22-31 641
Abstract

The article is devoted to the issues of geoecology and geopolitics in theArctic. The authors reveal the need for the combined accounting of geoenvironmental (GER) and geopolitical (GPR) risks in the industrial development of the Arctic territory.

Particular attention is paid to the transformation of these risks into additional opportunities and threats in the development and implementation of hydrocarbon projects by the oil and gas industry in theArctic. Consideration of interrelation and interaction of the GER and GPR is necessary for effective strategies management, planning and development business there.

NATURAL AND MAN-MADE SAFETY

32-39 431
Abstract

Performed in the complex research area geodynamics of oil and gas fields in theSouthern Uralsrevealed and explore the laws of formation of the neotectonic processes in natural and anthropogenic modified conditions. A method for monitoring modern tectonic processes in the region with the use of satellite systems has been developed. Elements of the methodology are tested at the oil and gas fields in theOrenburgand Samara regions.

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK

40-51 421
Abstract

In this paper, we present a methodical approach to determining the risks caused by accidents on linear part of the main gas pipelines in conditions of limited statistical information, the distinguishing features of which are the application of the methods of asymptotic theory of the probability of extreme values, deterministic and expert methods for assessing environmental risk, actuarial mathematics and mathematical statistics. The use of the proposed approach allows the insured to have a sound position when entering the insurance market with the purpose of concluding an insurance contract on the best for him conditions.

RISK MANAGEMENT

52-61 520
Abstract

The article reviewed the methodology for identifying business risks in enterprises of the agroindustrial complex, consisting of the following steps: the first stage — analysis of the contents of a risky situation, which includes the subject, object and subject of risk; the second stage — consideration of the influence of external and internal risk factors as the source of the occurrence of risk situations; the third stage — after determining the risk situation, select a specific type of risk in the form of a dedicated and inherent traits (we have allocated species and subspecies of economic risks for enterprises of the agro-industrial complex); the fourth stage — identifying target results each received as a risk, that is, getting the loss or profit; the fifth stage — target result bearing negative consequences runs the risk parameters changes due to the influence of external and internal factors and leads to a newly created risky situations, and this in turn leads to the identification of emerging risks. Provided the technique has closed and is constantly updating process to identify economic risks.

RISK ASSESSMENT

62-77 541
Abstract

The method for failure trees analysis is considered. This method is recommended by the standards as one of the main ones for identification of hazards, as well as for determining their causes and forecasting. It is proposed to expand the representation of the failures tree and using the extension to detail the algorithm (procedure) for its synthesis and analysis. The expansion is proposed on the basis of the concepts of the mechanism and kinetics of the undesirable (degradation) process, and also on the basis of the technical state dynamics model. The mechanism is the aggregation of the properties of the object and the factors that affect it. The kinetics are micro- and (or) macroscopic phenomena that arise as the results of summation or accumulation of elementary acts of a motion in a material and construction. The model of technical state dynamics is based on the structuring of a technical object and its states in accordance with the stages of degradation: defect, damage, destruction, failure, pre-emergency and emergency.

The proposed extension and the procedure for the synthesis and analysis of the failure trees allows us to typify the representation of the failure trees. This makes it possible to simplify the process of constructing a tree, to initiate an explicit description of the knowledge of experts about the cause-effect relationships of events and the mechanisms of their occurrence. These opportunities are ensure the accumulation of knowledge about undesirable processes (degradation) for different types of objects and are necessary to increase the effectiveness of the process of analyzing the risk of hazard objects by experts.

SOCIAL RISK

78-91 426
Abstract

The article describes, through theoretical interpretation, the principal provisions of risk behavior, which is in the focus of social control of modern Russian society. The subject of the research: social risks of the population in the financial and economic sphere and the possibility of their minimization in a market economy. The purpose of the work: analysis of the effectiveness of state regulation and market self-regulation, regarding the creation of conditions minimizing the social demand for risky behavior of Russians. It is concluded that the social control of risk behavior and its results is increasingly being carried out within the framework of the personnocentric management model. Priority tasks are defined to increase the financial solidarity and social responsibility of state authorities and civil society institutions.

АННОТАЦИИ СТАТЕЙ НА АНГЛИЙСКОМ ЯЗЫКЕ



Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)