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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Issues of risk analysis" is a peer-reviewed scientific and practical journal on risk analysis and management and it is in the in the list of leading peer-reviewed scientific journals included by the Higher Attestation Commission of Russia in the list of publications recommended for presentation of the main scientific results of the thesis for the degree of candidate and doctor of sciences in the following specialties:

  • 1.1.4 - Probability theory and mathematical statistics;
  • 5.2.3 - Regional industry economy;
  • 5.2.4 - Finance.

By the decision of the VAK of 21.12.2023 No. 3/pl/1, the journal has been assigned to category K1 for a period of three years since 01.01.2024.

The concept of the scientific journal is based on the presentation of the whole range of risk studies. The journal publishes articles of fundamental and applied nature, as a rule, interdisciplinary and multifaceted, devoted to the problems of analysis and management of risks of different origin and nature.

The journal is addressed to:

  • scientists;
  • practitioners;
  • specialists of state and commercial organizations whose activities are related to risk analysis and management;
  • students and teachers of educational institutions.

Certificate of registration of the media PI No FS 77-85693 from 14.08.2023.

Current issue

Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access
Vol 22, No 2 (2025)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)

COLUMN EDITOR

RISKS OF TERRORIST ATTACKS

10-21 168
Abstract

The article presents an analysis of scientific research data, statistical and analytical materials regarding countering the risks of terrorist attacks on critical infrastructure facilities of the fuel and energy complex using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The authors identify the characteristic features of terrorist threats using UAVs against oil and gas industry facilities, structure the international experience of anti-terrorist protection of fuel and energy complex facilities, and analyze the practical experience of China, Indonesia, Israel, and the United States in this area.

The results of the study allowed the authors to identify trends and prospects for the development of anti-terrorist protection systems for fuel and energy facilities from attacks using UAVs, and also allowed them to propose a methodology for determining the risk of emergencies caused by terrorist acts using UAVs in an integrated approach to risk assessment and man-made disaster risk management.

22-35 151
Abstract

The development of unmanned systems in recent years has led to the fact that they have become one of the most effective means of destroying critical infrastructure facilities deep in the territory. The article describes an approach to the analysis of socio-economic risk indicators when attacking objects by unmanned aerial vehicles. The use of risk indicators makes it possible to assess the contribution of the probability of an attack and the probability of objects receiving a certain degree of destruction.

REGIONAL FINANCIAL SECURITY

36-47 73
Abstract

The article contains a brief analysis of the financial security level of the Kirov Region in comparison with the regions of the Volga Federal District. The paper also provides a more in-depth analysis of statistical data from the Ministry of Finance of the Regions and data from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, characterizing the state and dynamics of financial security using the examples of subjects of the Volga Federal District. Based on the data obtained, conclusions are drawn about the nature of the financial security risks of the Volga Federal District regions in the Russian Federation.

BUDGET FINANCING RISKS

48-56 77
Abstract

The achievement of the results of socio-economic development is directly related to possible losses, therefore, the need to analyze the set of risks at the stage of justifying budget financing in the construction industry becomes urgent, and the procedure for identifying risks becomes necessary.

The article considers the problems of state financing of construction projects at the expense of the state budget. The authors describe the transition from the Federal Targeted Investment Program to the comprehensive state program "Construction" (CSP "Construction") and the formation of a register of capital construction projects (RCCP). The main problems investigated are to find solutions to minimize losses in the budget financing of construction projects, form a project selection procedure and ensure the adaptation of the information system for recording the performance of work on projects.

Considered groups of key risks: economic; managerial and bureaucratic; political and foreign economic; technical and production. Within these groups, categories and types of risks, consequences of exposure, key risk indicators and their management are identified. Based on the analysis of the fulfillment of budgetary obligations for financing facilities, trends in the development of risk situations were identified in terms of budget management, targeted financing, unfinished construction, and the impact of the budget deficit.

Solutions were proposed to limit specific risks at the stage of project selection for the implementation of budget financing for the identified risks of incompleteness or lack of quality of project documentation, non-compliance of data with the requirements of the register of projects, changes in the macroeconomic environment, incorrect distribution of budget allocations, transition period, unclear selection criteria, incomplete project, non-compliance with expectations and final results, changes in legislation and the regulatory framework.

RISK OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS

58-65 65
Abstract

The article offers a methodological approach to determining the rational locations of emergency rescue forces in the service area. A conditional example of calculating the coordinates of locations is given, taking into account the number of victims and the forces used in emergency situations.

66-77 84
Abstract

The article presents a new result of scientific research aimed at improving the efficiency of the State Inspectorate for Small Vessels of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia (hereinafter referred to as the SISV of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia): a methodology for substantiating uniform requirements for buildings and structures of SISV units of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia.

The methodology makes it possible to determine the areas of buildings and structures of the SISV units of the EMERCOM of Russia, depending on their staffing levels and equipment with logistical means.

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK

78-91 75
Abstract

The article outlines a universal approach to risk assessment of nature management (RANM), developed by the author to assist government officials in assessing and reporting on environmental conditions when planning and implementing environmental management activities. This approach will also be useful to industry resource managers, indigenous peoples, non-governmental organizations and others interested in or currently involved in managing disaster-prone areas. RANM is the process of assessing the likelihood of an adverse outcome or event due to impacts or changes in environmental conditions, including a result of human activity. The RANM complements the formal methods used by businesses and organizations in environmental reporting, impact assessment of nature management (IANM), environmental checking, and risk management. This approach involves identifying, analyzing and presenting information in terms of risks to environmental values to support planning and decision-making processes. However, it does not purport to provide all natural and socio-economic information relevant to decision making, nor is it intended to replace standard planning and decision making in the production management process. The RANM is a flexible tool that can be used: 1) at various scales and levels of detail corresponding to these scales, from the global to the specific object; 2) on various environmental problems and types of hazardous natural processes (HNP); 3) in various sectors of the economy and at various levels of financing; 4) for short-term, medium-term and long-term time scales. The RANM is based on an assessment of the interactions between natural factors, management regimes and environmental values. Risk assessment and reporting can then be used to determine risk mitigation strategies. On this basis, specific changes in production management plans and actions can be made.