COLUMN EDITOR
CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT
This research focuses on building system dynamics credit risk model of an oil company. Article shows the possibility of using such models to define macroeconomic scenarios leading to default of a borrow.
NATURAL RISK
The opportunity of recent and Holocene activation of faults in platform conditions in plain territories is considered. Such faults represent geomorphological hazard to large economic objects, for example, linear constructions, such as main pipelines. As an example the degree of geomorphological hazard of active faults for a projected line of a main gas pipeline «Covycta — Irkutsk» in Irkutsk Oblast is analyzed. As a theoretical basis of researches the author's concept of natural hazard and risk and modeling of types of structures of the hazardous geomorphic processes has served.
THE RISK OF FIRE
The article proposes a mathematical model for optimizing fire risk management activities in the territory of oil and gas production facilities using genetic algorithms. In the practical example, there are a number of possible combinations of measures to reduce the calculated values of fire risks on a typical gas station. The proposed mathematical model is implemented in the structure of the information system "Firerisks". An analysis of the model developed, findings of the results, and further studies.
DECISION RISK
The article analyzes the relationship and the influence of the subjective aspects of perception of risk situations and uncertainties for Upstream segment (exploration and mining). The authors give an overall picture of possible errors in the company’s organizational structure, which can adversely affect the process of preparation and decision-making. Detailed mechanisms that prevent the adoption of management is carried out. On the basis of the study we draw conclusions and provides recommendations about ways in the preparation and adaptation of managers and personnel involved in the management decision-making and are offered ready-made products and services for practical application.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC RISK
The paper introduces the top level of managing structurally complex economic systems. Objects of management include: states, socioeconomic problems of the state, socio-economic systems of the state and its regions. New problems of the top level of management in economy and economics have been considered. The concept of invalidity in economics has been introduced by analogy with reliability in engineering. New types of Boolean events-propositions in economics have been introduced, as well as the new types of LP risk models for the top level of management: hybrid, invalid, conceptual, indicative, the models of managing the condition and development of systems and evaluating the quality of management systems.
Objects of management include the following socio-economic systems (SES): 1) those of top priority for the country and its national security, 2) the complex ones for the country and its regions, 3) the local ones for companies.
The general technique of managing structurally complex economic systems has been proposed. The examples of the failure of economic and engineering projects and systems have been provided. LP-models of invalidity (of the quality) of the condition and development of SES of the country, its regions and companies have been described. The LP-model of assessing the quality of management systems in economy has been proposed.
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)