COLUMN EDITOR
RISK MILITARY-POLITICAL
Purpose: analysis of the scale of the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons, as well as an assessment of the possibility of using various civil defense measures to reduce military-strategic risks in the threat of the use of nuclear weapons.
Based on the analysis, recommendations were developed for state authorities and civil defense departments aimed at minimizing military-strategic risks in the face of a threat of nuclear conflict.
GLOBAL RISKS
Objectives. The problem of escalation of global risks and increase of their crisis level is considered.
The aim of the work is to analyze crisis factors and develop proposals on directions of anti-crisis policy.
Methods. The totality of global risks is considered in accordance with the postulates of the general theory of risk, as a controlled and constantly acting attribute of human life. Using the formallogical method, the directions of anti-crisis activities have been developed.
Results. The authors show that the peculiarity of the development of modern global risks is the growth of their crisis potential. The main growth factor is the increase in general international conflict, characterized as global, geographically expanding, uncompromising, difficult to resolve and having an intercivilizational and geopolitical basis. The regional specificity of the manifestation of crisis potential is that inevitable and general risks do not generate general and equally deep crises, bringing growing damage to some countries and unions, and the best opportunities to others. The authors found that the materialization of crisis potential in real destructive crises largely depends on the strength or weakness of national and union economies. The main directions of anti-crisis policy in individual countries and unions are increasing the ability to withstand sanctions restraint of their own development and the level of provision with financial and human capital, as well as strengthening control over the flows of material and intangible resources.
Conclusion. An important prerequisite for reducing the crisis potential and successfully managing crises is belonging to a union comparable in potential to opposing blocs of countries, the ability to minimize the restraining influence of opponents and build a union system of a limited quasi-global economy with well-established flows of goods and money, a balance of supply and demand, and a system of mutual complementarity and reinforcement (synergy).
INFORMATION SECURITY
This article examines the concept of the information and digital component of economic security of a business entity. The main problems of the subsystem, changes in the requirements for organizing protection taking into account modern realities, as well as the possibilities of identifying the main risks taking into account the risk-oriented approach are given.
The purpose of this article is to propose a mechanism for assessing the level of the information and digital component of economic security of a small business entity.
The objectives are to define and interpret the very concept of the information and digital subsystem of economic security, to determine threat factors, and to designate a list of indicators with threshold values with subsequent mathematical processing of the obtained data using the example of a real operating company.
PRODUCTION SAFETY
The formation of the method "Hazard and operability studies" (HAZOP) from 1960 to 2024, is considered. The contribution to the development of the method of foreign institutes and companies "Imperial Chemical industries", "Institute of Chemical Engineers", "American Institute of Chemical Engineers", as well as Russian state supervisory authorities and commercial organizations is indicated. The fundamental difference between the tasks related to the analysis of the risk of accidents and the analysis of the risk of achieving the project goals, which are combined in the canonical version of the method, is emphasized. This creates some confusion in the use of methodological documents created to solve some problems when solving problems in a completely different direction. The limitations, possibilities and prospects of the betting method for solving of accident risk analysis problems are demonstrated. Possible additions to the method with special tools or the use of other methods of accident risk analysis are considered.
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK
The article considers the issues of managing the impact of the oil and gas business on the atmosphere using the example of the activities of PJSC NK ROSNEFT (hereinafter referred to as Rosneft) for 2012–2023. The study was conducted based on data on gross and specific emissions into the atmosphere from the approved reports on sustainable development of Rosneft. The dynamics of gross emissions of harmful substances in general tend to slightly decrease with an increase in the indicators of gross emissions of SO2 and NOx. At the same time, the dynamics of specific emissions of SO2 and NOx grows to a lesser extent. Rosneft should increase information transparency in the area of costs for measures to minimize the impact on the atmosphere and strive to further improve the efficiency of the implementation of the Environmental Protection Concept.
NATURAL RISK
Long-term annual values of the cyclonic energy of tropical cyclones and annual values of seismic energy were calculated separately for earthquakes of several magnitude ranges. Calculations were carried out over a vast cyclonic zone in the northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean. Certain correlations have been identified between long-term dynamics of annual values of cyclonic energy and annual values of seismic energy. The patterns of development trends in long-term series of annual values of cyclonic and seismic energies have been identified. Based on the results obtained, a hypothetical mechanism for the possible influence of cyclonic activity on seismic activity in two different magnitude ranges is proposed.
PROJECT RISK
FINANCIAL RISK
A set of numerical arrays is considered, each of which describes the economic activities of some companies. For each array, the frequencies of occurrence of each of the possible digits in the first digit and in the second digit of the array elements are determined. The "distances" from the obtained empirical frequencies to the theoretical frequencies of Benford's law are calculated in several ways. Cluster analysis is performed on a set of points whose coordinates are calculated distances, dividing arrays into two groups characterized by varying degrees of "proximity" to Benford's law. The results of cluster analysis are used to train a classifier based on logistic regression, which is then used to predict the presence (or absence) of distortions in financial statements received from new companies.
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)