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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 19, No 6 (2022)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-6

COLUMN EDITOR

ECOLOGICAL RISKS

10-19 232
Abstract

The article focuses on identifying the dynamics of indicators  and  criteria for the rating  of environmental transparency of oil and gas industry facilities in the Russian Arctic for 2014—2021. The authors managed to identify the general and differentiated dynamics of greening of the Arctic oil and gas sector enterprise in three sections: managerial, operational and informational. The leaders of the environmental rating have been identified — Sakhalin Energy (Sakhalin-2), LUKOIL, Zarubezhneft.

20-33 398
Abstract

The article proposes an original approach to the identification and risk management of the environmental management system in accordance with the requirements of the ISO 14001:2015, taking into account the specifics of the activities of industrial organizations. Algorithms for identifying and assessing environmental  aspects and related environmental  risks, as well as developing measures to reduce environmental risks and evaluating the effectiveness of these actions are presented. The proposed approaches and examples can be applied in various industries and may be of interest to researchers and specialists in the field of environmental management and risk management.

СLIMATE RISK

34-49 381
Abstract

The article presents a facet-hierarchical approach to the classification of climate risks in the context of the economic activity of an enterprise. The relevance of climate issues is due to the unprecedented  pace of global warming in previous decades and the increased climate impact on  the  economy, not  only at  the  macroeconomic  level, but  also at  the  level of individual organizations. An important task for the enterprise is to create such a risk classification system that will allow not only to identify and aggregate information about the risks associated with climate change in the context of economic activity, but also to ensure a rapid operative response to existing and emerging hazards. The purpose of this work is to study the possibilities of using the facet-hierarchical method of climate risk classification in application to risk management in the context of the economic activity of an enterprise. The structure of the classifier is built on the basis of the principle of integration of the enterprise activity, presented in the form of four main subsystems: object, process, design and environment. An important addition to the facet approach is the hierarchical structure of each facet. The hierarchy of subordinate features is built within each facet and allows taking into account, on the one hand, the multilateral nature of the climate impact, on the other hand, the complexity of the economic structure of the enterprise. The proposed method can be modified depending on specific practical tasks and integrated into the overall risk management system of the organization. The information obtained based on logically proven accounting, classification and risk assessment can contribute to the adoption of effective management decisions and increase the value of the company.

50-65 304
Abstract

This article discusses the possibilities of modern  technologies for capturing and processing carbon dioxide in order to reduce its impact on climate change and the negative impact on the livelihoods of people who have been in places of mass residence for a long time. Based on the analysis of socio-economic significance, the scientific and technical level of technological process development and the necessary resource support for carbon dioxide capture and processing technologies, a methodological approach to determining the prospects for their use is proposed.

REGIONAL SAFETY

66-75 758
Abstract

Diagnostics and forecasting of economic security plays a special role at the macro- and mesolevels of the economy. The main task of each region is to ensure the optimal state of economic security, for this it is necessary to predict threats accurately, analyze risks in the context of economic sectors and give appropriate estimates of indicators. The study applied a method for assessing the economic security of the regional level using an integral assessment, for this the following procedures were sequentially carried out: the search for statistical data, the formation of weight coefficients using expert assessments, determining the structure of the model and finding an integral indicator in the context of projections and regions: real economy, financial sphere, social sphere, assessment of the general integral indicator of economic security of the regions of the Volga Federal District.

76-85 883
Abstract

The article deals with the issues of socio-economic risks and their definition through the criteria of economic security of the region. The criteria for assessing the social security of the region are highlighted; the methodology for processing primary data and their translation into a point assessment is developed and justified.

The purpose of this article is to review and assess socio-economic risks and threats in the economic security system of the region on the example of the Kirov region.

The objectives of the work are to review the main socio-economic risks and threats of the Kirov region, to study the methodological aspects of assessing socio-economic risks and threats in the economic security system of the region, to analyze and evaluate socio-economic indicators in the economic security system of the Kirov region.

The basis of the developed system is the use of statistical data and grouping of indicators based on causal relationships between indicators. Based on the results of the study, an analysis of the economic security of the Kirov region by social groups of factors based on the presented criteria was carried out.

RISKS OF WATER MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES

86-98 362
Abstract

The management of the water management complex is based on the analysis of a large number of processes developing in systems that are techno-natural  in nature, on the one hand, and in complex socio-economic systems affecting the whole society as a whole, on the other. The management methods implemented in practice today are based mainly on the analysis of the functioning of individual parts (individual processes) of the system, ideas about the processes under consideration are often not consistent, especially when it comes to technical and social systems. Regulatory management  methods,  including  technical  regulation,  are  considered separately. Socio-economic processes at different levels of temporal and spatial organization are investigated and predicted independently. At the same time, of course, regulatory legal knowledge is taken into account, but resource restrictions may fall out or be ignored, society is immune to instructions and recommendations lowered from above, legal nihilism takes place, the problem of qualification of decision-makers arises, etc.

Certain possibilities for analyzing such situations are provided by risk theory methods. The purpose of the article is to analyze the risks arising at various stages of justifying water management measures, from design to strategies for the development of the industry as a whole. In particular, traditional methods of engineering calculations are considered, which ensure a given level of reliability of the designed water construction facilities in relation to hazardous impacts (loads), which are based on the concept of design probabilities. This approach provides a normative level of reliability, but does not guarantee the economic optimality of decisions made, is insufficient to  implement  the  social functions  of measures  and  structures,  and  is difficult to  analyze environmental problems. Obtaining quantitative estimates of the parameters of structures and measures, carried out on the basis of probabilistic approaches, should be based at least on taking into account the possible consequences of decisions taken, as well as on damage assessments expressed in the form of relevant risks.

TECHNOGENIC RISK ASSESSMENT

100-107 227
Abstract

The article presents a model for assessing the potential risk of gas leakage from aboveground sections of the gas pipeline at low temperatures.

The influence of abnormal weather conditions on the magnitude of the excess pressure of the shock wave is substantiated. The safe distances during the explosion of a methane gas-air mixture cloud under conditions of temperature inversion are estimated. Based on the data obtained, a model for assessing potential risk has been developed.



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ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)