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Issues of Risk Analysis

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No 4 (2022)
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https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-4

COLUMN EDITOR

REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SECURITY

10-29 551
Abstract

The article shows the fundamental role of mineral fertilizers in solving the problems of global food security. Due to a number of reasons, primarily the increase in the cost of fertilizers and restrictions on their supply, as well as sanctions restrictions on the supply of raw materials, techniques for more efficient use of fertilizers are given. The role of precision agriculture is characterized, including issues of increasing the efficiency of fertilizer use. The results of agrochemical experiments with various crops and in various soil and environmental conditions are presented, their agronomic and economic efficiency is shown. Further directions of work on the evaluation of the effectiveness of the use of fertilizers, in particular nitrogen, are given. The risk assessment and management measures are also noted.

30-44 504
Abstract

The article presents the author’s methodology for assessing the risks of the financial and budgetary security of the region, based on the synthesis of the indicative approach, the minimax method and the method of normalizing indicators. The purpose of the article is to develop a new approach to diagnosing threats to financial and budgetary security, assessing the level of risk of these threats at the mesolevel. During the research, such methods as analysis, synthesis, indicative analysis, minimax method, normalization method were used. The article discusses approaches to the content of risk management activities, examines in detail the issue of the concept of risk, its essential features. Further, the author examines the existing methods for assessing risks in the field of financial and fiscal security, on the basis of which the author proposes a threat-oriented approach to risk assessment, the author examines the main threats to financial and fiscal security that have become more relevant after the introduction of new Western sanctions against Russia against the backdrop of a special military an operation aimed at the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, as well as the protection of the population of Donbass from attacks by neo-Nazi formations. To assess the risk of implementation of each of the threats, indicators were selected, and the average threshold value, minimum and maximum threshold levels were determined. In total, it was proposed to use 10 indicators, with the help of which, on the basis of the developed methodology, an assessment of the risks of financial and budgetary security of the Kirov region was carried out. During the diagnostics, the risks of financial and budgetary security of the Kirov region were identified. The methodology proposed in the article can be used by public authorities in order to increase the efficiency of risk management of the financial and budgetary security of the region.

YOUNG SPECIALIST

46-60 471
Abstract

The article presents data on the rate of carbon accumulation in the swamp ecosystems of Russia, and the West Siberian Lowland, as the most peaty region. The study shows the impact of climate change on the plant composition of swamp ecosystems, including an assessment of the absorption capacity of forests and swamps of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO). The hypothesis is proved that global warming can negatively affect the swamp ecosystems of the YNAO, not only reducing the depositing function of swamps, but also changing their role from absorbers to sources of carbon dioxide emission. Then climate risks, their division into groups and the main risks for the Russian economy are described. Social risks, risks of agro- and oil-producing industries, as well as risks of forest fires are analyzed. Approximate assessments of these risks are given, their impact on economic agents in Russia and the YNAO is considered.

RISK MANAGEMENT

62-70 477
Abstract

This study aims to investigate the risks faced by today’s logistics industry and describes the Logistics 4.0 concept as a tool for minimizing these risks. The study conducts a literary review of modern research on the topics “Industry 4.0,” “Logistics 4.0,” and examines the relevant definitions. The study aims to form a theoretical framework and study current methodological research to form a basis for further research of “maturity models” of companies.

PROJECT RISKS

72-81 546
Abstract

The article discusses the role and features of project financing of facilities, the need for new instruments and forms of attracting investments that would allow linking debt obligations with the project being implemented. Financial sources of construction of facilities within the framework of public-private partnership are investigated. It has been established that the relevance of the use of infrastructure bonds is confirmed by the lack of financial resources for infrastructure projects, as well as the growing market for non-mandatory pension insurance. It is noted that only the conditions necessary for the targeted use of funds received from the sale of infrastructure bonds and the rules for financing the construction and reconstruction of infrastructure facilities using SOPF bonds are fixed at the legislative level. The goals of creating infrastructure bonds have been determined. The analysis of the ratio of the application of loans and bonds in project financing was carried out, the stages of project financing are considered. Municipal targeted and corporate forms of issuing infrastructure bonds were identified and the main conditions for financing infrastructure projects were formulated. It is noted that despite the fact that infrastructure bonds are reliable, it is necessary to increase their protection against inflation and indicate a competitive yield on securities compared to federal loan bonds. Additional measures are proposed to increase the attractiveness of the infrastructure project. It is noted that an important condition for the completion of infrastructure projects is the effective distribution of risks and effective management of them. Financial, political and project assessment risks were identified as the main risks. The latter are classified as mandatory monitoring and control, since they affect the incompleteness of the project. The advantages and disadvantages of this project financing mechanism are formulated.

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ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)