COLUMN EDITOR
SOCIO-ECONOMIC RISK
At present, taking into account the crisis in the country and the world as a whole, the assessment of the level of socio-economic security, taking into account various factors, is becoming relevant. For a long time, the consumer market was considered the driver of the economy, both in the Russian Federation and around the world, but now, taking into account the crisis, its potential is declining. All these trends create the prerequisites for determining indicators of analysis and diagnostics of the level of security of the consumer market and socio-economic security in general.
The purpose of the study is to present a method and a set of indicators for analyzing and diagnosing the level of socio-economic security at the regional level, taking into account factors in the development of the consumer market.
In the process of research, methods of systemic, complex analysis, economic and mathematical methods, methods of grouping data and piecewise linear scaling were used.
As a result, the concepts of the consumer market and socio-economic security are formulated taking into account the factors of the economic sector, a system of factors that affect both the security of the consumer market and socio-economic security in general is constructed, a list of risk indicators is presented to assess the socio-economic security of the region with taking into account factors of the consumer market, assessment levels of socio-economic security of the region are formed taking into account factors of the consumer market.
The proposed methodology for assessing the level of socio-economic security will allow to identify problem areas in the socio-economic system of the region and the consumer market, to take coordinating, regulatory measures in order to ensure socio-economic security and minimize risks.
We introduced new structurally complex objects of management in economics and State. We proposed new problems with logical-probabilistic (LP) risk models for managing different types of systems: socio-economic, with risk models based on statistical data, with a large number of indicators and logical combination of several systems.
The following problems are considered in detail: managing the development of systems, assessing the quality of management systems, managing a safe living space, taking into account the effect of repeated events on the accuracy of assessing the safety and quality of a system, planning development programs for complex systems with different subsystem outcomes.
Calculations on LP-model of State set, what reforms are needed in economics. The role of the digital economics in the active inclusion of the personnel of state institutions, enterprises, companies and every person in managing of State and economics is shown.
MACROECONOMIC RISK
The article is devoted to one of the urgent problems of the world economy: the trade opposition of the United States and China. Due to the fact that these countries occur to be the largest economies in the world, their conflict cannot in one way or another be reflected in other subjects of international economic relations. The article analyzes the main stages of the trade war between the United States and China and formulates the causes of the crisis.
On the basis of a regional approach and analysis of statistical data it became possible to make an assessment of the effects that the US-PRC rivalry has on mutual trade, investment and energy cooperation between Russia and China. It is noted that in connection with the trade conflict, Russian-Chinese relations are reaching a new level of development, the number of joint economic projects is growing. However, the confrontation between the United States and China brings not only opportunities, but also risks for Russia. The authors make a forecast about the impact of the trade war on the economy of the Russian Federation in the short and medium term.
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ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)