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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 17, No 2 (2020)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2020-17-2

COLUMN EDITOR

SOCIO-ECONOMIC RISK

10-21 752
Abstract

At present, taking into account the crisis in the country and the world as a whole, the assessment of the level of socio-economic security, taking into account various factors, is becoming relevant. For a long time, the consumer market was considered the driver of the economy, both in the Russian Federation and around the world, but now, taking into account the crisis, its potential is declining. All these trends create the prerequisites for determining indicators of analysis and diagnostics of the level of security of the consumer market and socio-economic security in general.

The purpose of the study is to present a method and a set of indicators for analyzing and diagnosing the level of socio-economic security at the regional level, taking into account factors in the development of the consumer market.

In the process of research, methods of systemic, complex analysis, economic and mathematical methods, methods of grouping data and piecewise linear scaling were used.

As a result, the concepts of the consumer market and socio-economic security are formulated taking into account the factors of the economic sector, a system of factors that affect both the security of the consumer market and socio-economic security in general is constructed, a list of risk indicators is presented to assess the socio-economic security of the region with taking into account factors of the consumer market, assessment levels of socio-economic security of the region are formed taking into account factors of the consumer market.

The proposed methodology for assessing the level of socio-economic security will allow to identify problem areas in the socio-economic system of the region and the consumer market, to take coordinating, regulatory measures in order to ensure socio-economic security and minimize risks.

22-39 551
Abstract

We introduced new structurally complex objects of management in economics and State. We proposed new problems with logical-probabilistic (LP) risk models for managing different types of systems: socio-economic, with risk models based on statistical data, with a large number of indicators and logical combination of several systems.

The following problems are considered in detail: managing the development of systems, assessing the quality of management systems, managing a safe living space, taking into account the effect of repeated events on the accuracy of assessing the safety and quality of a system, planning development programs for complex systems with different subsystem outcomes.

Calculations on LP-model of State set, what reforms are needed in economics. The role of the digital economics in the active inclusion of the personnel of state institutions, enterprises, companies and every person in managing of State and economics is shown.

40-55 518
Abstract
The article discusses the risks of losing connectivity of the territory of Russia caused by its huge space with poorly developed transport infrastructure, the presence of excessive imbalances that manifest themselves in a hypertrophied change in the economic and spatial structure when Russia turns into a huge uninhabited space with several megacities.

MACROECONOMIC RISK

56-65 800
Abstract

The article is devoted to one of the urgent problems of the world economy: the trade opposition of the United States and China. Due to the fact that these countries occur to be the largest economies in the world, their conflict cannot in one way or another be reflected in other subjects of international economic relations. The article analyzes the main stages of the trade war between the United States and China and formulates the causes of the crisis.

On the basis of a regional approach and analysis of statistical data it became possible to make an assessment of the effects that the US-PRC rivalry has on mutual trade, investment and energy cooperation between Russia and China. It is noted that in connection with the trade conflict, Russian-Chinese relations are reaching a new level of development, the number of joint economic projects is growing. However, the confrontation between the United States and China brings not only opportunities, but also risks for Russia. The authors make a forecast about the impact of the trade war on the economy of the Russian Federation in the short and medium term.

RISK OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS

66-73 482
Abstract
The article is devoted to the justification of the need to reduce the population density in the residential development of cities. The analysis of vulnerability of the urban population from threats of emergency situations of peace and war time, and also an assessment of provision of the city by a road network is given. Proposals have been formulated to reduce the vulnerability of the urban population in the long term and to eliminate traffic congestion and congestion — jams.

RISK MANAGEMENT

74-85 638
Abstract
Every year the relevance of the problems of reducing the technological risk of not only a dangerous facility, but also of the region where it is located, the solution of which will reduce both the risk indicators of emergency situations and the extent of their consequences, is growing more and more. Effective implementation of this direction is possible only with the coordination of the activities of state authorities and the responsibility of the owners of such objects. The paper analyzes the occurrence of emergencies associated with the operation of a gas filling station, developed possible scenarios for their development, calculated the damaging factors with the construction of a "tree of events". Assessment of basic risks is the basis for making objective management decisions that ensure the safe and sustainable development of the economy and territorial entity as a whole.
86-93 953
Abstract
The article presents the results of individual occupational risk studies depending on the working conditions and health of the employee, as well as the calculation of an integral indicator of the level of occupational risk under permissible working conditions. Calculation data can be used for compulsory social insurance against accidents at work, as well as for assessment of individual professional risk of employees and level of professional risk in the organization in various types of economic activities with subsequent development of reasonable measures aimed at reduction of professional risk.

DISCUSSION CLUB

94-101 677
Abstract
This article is devoted to the study of approaches to the formation of the category “risk” as an object of management in the activities of an economic entity. Various theories that reveal the primary source of the concept of “risk” have analyzed. The main stages of risk development in the activities of economic entities are considered. The main modern approaches to the characterization of risk as an object of management in business entities are highlighted and critically evaluated. An actual interpretation of the term “risk” is proposed taking into account international scientific and applied research. The necessity of continuing the development of approaches to understanding the risk of economic activity has substantiated.

OPERATIONAL BANK RISK

102-119 892
Abstract
This study examines the efficiency of operational risk management of 85 Russian commercial banks during the period 2008—2017. This study uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) with financial ratios to assess the efficiency of operational risk management. The study adopts the basic indicator approach (BIA) to measuring operational risk. Also, the study adopts net interest margin (NIM), return on assets (ROA), and return on equity (ROE) for measuring banks performance. The study found that the small banks were the most effective in managing operational risk, while large banks were more efficient than medium banks.


ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)