The article considers the issues of monitoring and forecasting of emergency situations in the implementation framework of the Russian Federation State politics in sphere of protection of population and territories from emergency situations. They are determined goals and tasks, highlighted special features and phases, revealed content of every one of enhancement directions of monitoring and forecasting of emergency situations as a component part of the emergency risk management framework.

Ecological-geomorphological zoning analysis of Baikal Region to hazardous geomorphological processes was carried out on the basis of the author’s technique. Baikal Region includes the subjects of the Russian Federation in the South Siberia and Republic of Mongolia within the boundaries of the Lake Baikal Basin. The basis of zoning are: 1) the spatial distribution patterns of dominant landforms and geomorphological processes that have a negative impact on the economy and social sphere; 2) territorial organization of the economy of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Mongolia, as well as regional system of intra and inter regional industrial relations; 3) the prospects for socio-economic development of South Siberia in Russian Federation and the Republic of Mongolia, as well as hazardous geomorphological processes that can be activated or re-emerge in the result. Research aimed at improving the state system to deal with emergency situations of natural and man-made disasters in Russia, optimization of international contacts in the field of modernization and development of new methods of prevention and prediction of natural disasters and catastrophes.

Changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere in a changing climate can lead to a noticeable redistribution of the amount of pollutants entering and areas affecting regions during long-range pollution. In this connection, a methodical approach has been formulated for assessing the trends of long-range atmospheric pollution for given environmentally significant zones, taking into account the predicted climate changes. Pollution indices, characterizing the amount of transported impurity in the latitudinal and meridional directions, are introduced, and calculations are made for January, April, July, October and the year for the period 1980—2050, which generally indicate well-defined trends in long-range atmospheric pollution. The study of the dynamics of the influence of changing weather and climatic conditions in specific areas on human activity in terms of comfort of living has been carried out.

Large-scale accidents and disasters, as a rule, leave serious negative consequences and require huge financial and material-technical resources for their liquidation. In this article, based on the generalization of the experience in the elimination of such accidents, possible directions for optimizing the composition of activities and resources necessary for their financing, including the costs of social protection of citizens affected by disasters, are suggested. Features of forecasting the duration of longterm contamination of territories affected by accidents, taking into account the processes of selfcleaning of various natural environments from persistent pollutants, are also considered.

Paper deals with three levels of business risk: acceptable, critical and catastrophic, based on official statistics. The aim of the study was to assess, existing in recent years, values of entrepreneurial risk on the totality of small and medium enterprises, formed by size and industry characteristics. Paper presents the results of risk assessment for a set of medium enterprises, small enterprises and microenterprises in the Russian economy. Based on the results of the study, we concluded that there is a significant differentiation of entrepreneurial risk levels by economic activity. The industries with the maximum and minimum values of the existing business risks are determined. The results of the research can be used by entrepreneurs (including beginners), departments of Federal, regional and municipal authorities related to the regulation of entrepreneurial activity, by employees of business structures, financial and credit, insurance, leasing organizations.

Uncertainty as an attribute of fire and emerging risks has both objective and subjective origin. Like measure uncertainty in modern metrology, the uncertainty in the risk theory has qualitative and quantitative aspects. Several methods for uncertainty quantifying are known. Taking into account the specifics of dangerous industrial objects, the probabilistic approach to quantitative estimation of their risk parameter uncertainty is inapplicable. A good alternative is to assess the fire and emerging risks in the interval setting. In addition to directly assessing the uncertainty of the results obtained — the risk indicators — it also makes it possible to estimate the parametric sensitivity of the model and to assess the conservatism of the assumptions made.

We consider one of the existing technologies, scilicet of the multi-shift safety monitoring, which implies tracking of the integrity of the information system (IS) by periodically replacing each other operators in the interval between diagnostics of the system, in relation to computerized boiler-rooms with network access. Herein the IS of the boiler-house is taken into account as protected from dangerous software-engineering influences through the computer network only if to the beginning of the specified period of time the integrity of the system is ensured and throughout this set period the sources of danger do not penetrate the system (with a calculated probability). Here the operator of the boiler-room figures as an eventual link of the series of the controlled, including the program level, barriers for (external) network malefactor. For computerized boiler-houses, depending on the ratios for the duration of the operator’s work during each shift, the specified period of safe operation and the period between diagnostics, three variants are considered that are typical for this technology. The possibilities of applying the latter in the foreshortening of risk assessment of emergency situations (ES) within the previously developed by the author logical-probabilistic model for computerized boiler-houses are discussed.