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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 14, No 5 (2017)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2017-14-5

COLUMN EDITOR

SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECURITY

6-19 614
Abstract

In the 21st century economy will develop on the basis of new directions, started by Kate Raworth in her “Doughnut Economics” and technologies of “Socio-economic Systems Safety Management”, but no on the basis of appeals for growth and management of it “by notions”, “by manual control” and using the principle “Give more money”.

All budget is spent for socioeconomic systems. All losses in State are caused by corruption, narcotization, “kickbacks”, decisionmaking “by concepts”, peculation and excessive expenses for social and military projects. Therefore, management of safety in socioeconomic systems based on new methodological approach with logical and probabilistic risk models is important trend for evolution economics in XXI century.

The choice of a mathematical apparatus for solving the problem is substantiated, new types of Boolean event-statements in the economy are proposed, methods for constructing logical-probabilistic risk models and risk analysis of the state of socioeconomic systems, state management and system development are described. Special software for LP risk management in the economy is described. New types of LP risk models with event-statements and SES of the highest importance are presented. Methods for synthesizing the probabilities of event-propositions, assessing the weight of invalid events, accounting for the dynamics of risk models and assessing the quality of control systems are outlined.

ECONOMIC SECURITY

20-29 767
Abstract

The article shows that the application of the risk-oriented approach in a broad sense should be viewed not only as a mechanism for the formation of a stock of a certain financial resource for ensuring economic stability, economic security, competitiveness of an economic entity, but also as the formation of a wide range of measures not only of a financial nature coordinated actions in solving strategic tasks of the development of the Russian economy.

30-36 476
Abstract

The subject of scientific article is the management of innovative projects to ensure economic security of the Russian regions.

The relevance of the selected subject stems from a study of the characteristics of the current status and problems of formation of economic security in developing innovative design solutions in terms of integration of economies into the world economy.

The purpose of the article is the disclosure of problems and prospects of economic security in the management of innovative projects, planning, technologies in the integration of economies into the world economy, identifying opportunities of forming , organization, financing, management priorities for the economy.

The hypothesis. Economic security requires the development of innovative solutions in the part of the formation of the new institutional structures, Fund, PPP projects, changes in the strategy for socio-economic development in the context of integration economies into the world economy.

Methodology. Solving methodology based on the use of method of dialectical research, methods of economic analysis, forecasting, situational and systemic analysis, expert assessments and analysis of empirical data. Result/practical application is the formation of innovative institutional structures within the PPP Fund will assist in addressing the political, economic and social problems of territorial development, innovative projects, ensuring the economic security of the Russian regions in the framework of regulation of the legislation, predicting the effective economic activities within the framework of the new Strategy of industrialization, selecting optimal models project planning to ensure economic security and competitiveness in integration of economies into the world economy.

SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC SECURITY

38-51 641
Abstract

The article deals with social risks that are the essential characteristic of modern society, which, when implemented, are the greatest threat toRussia’s security.

SOCIAL RISKS

52-71 564
Abstract

The article presents an analysis of such a topical topic as the phenomenon of emotional burnout in the sphere of education, exemplified by university teachers, teachers and educators. The analysis of theoretical approaches to the problem of emotional burnout is presented, their social risks, methods of prevention and correction of the emotional burnout syndrome are considered. The article also presents the results of the author's comparative study of emotional burnout features (the organization, research methods, analysis and interpretation of the data obtained are presented).

 

HEALTH RISKS

72-81 4898
Abstract

Significance. Mortality of the Russian population from respiratory diseases reduces every year: if in the middle of the twentieth century, it occupied the 4th place in the structure of mortality by causes, according to current data of Federal State Statistic Service in 2016 — on 6th place. But at the same time, in recent years, the society is concerned about the increase in deaths from influenza and ARI inRussia. In 2006—2016 the absolute number of deaths increased due to the flu. If in 2006 year 93 people died from influenza, in 2016 this number increase to 1079.

The Purpose. To study the structure and dynamics of population mortality from respiratory diseases and flu.

Materials and methods. Analyzed mortality from respiratory diseases in 2006—2016 years. Was calculated overall and standardized, age-specific mortality rates of the population. There was comparison of reasons within the class “Diseases of the respiratory system”. We used data of Federal State Statistic Service, research Institute of influenza, a weekly bulletin EuroFlu and monitoring data mortality inEurope— the EuroMOMO.

Results and conclusions. In the mortality structure from respiratory system diseases deaths from chronic lower respiratory disease and pneumonia occupy the bulk of deaths. Mortality from acute respiratory infections of the upper respiratory tract, influenza and other respiratory diseases is insignificant. At the same time, In 2006—2016 the absolute number of deaths increased due to the flu and in 2016 statistics shows that this problem is observed not only inRussia, but all over the world. Various different social groups are not equal in the face of the flu. The flu hits the most vulnerable population: children, elder population and population suffering from chronic diseases. The increase in flu deaths is a direct challenge to the medical and social technologies.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC RISKS

82-92 417
Abstract

The article discusses the potential motives of graduates of theMoscowuniversities in the next four years, reflecting a desire for employment abroad in 2/3 of today’s students. The outflow of trained personnel carries with it certain socio-economic risks to society and the state. All provisions and conclusions OPIE-cleared on empirical material obtained during the pilot case study (sample size N = 448) conducted by the author and a group of students fromFinancialUniversityin February-March 2017.

АННОТАЦИИ СТАТЕЙ НА АНГЛИЙСКОМ ЯЗЫКЕ



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ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)