Modeling of Infrastructure Project Risk Assessment in the Context of Project Financing

Abstract

The urgency of the problem under consideration is due to the increase in the number of infrastructure facilities under construction under the project financing scheme, in connection with which developers are faced with the need to identify and assess project risks. Risks arising at the stage of construction and operation of the infrastructure facility were identified. Approaches to project risk assessment were studied. The essence of an integrated approach to risk assessment is to consider and take into account all risk impacts in their total volume over the analyzed period of time. A rating approach to risk assessment involves assessing the potential impact of risks based on the likelihood that an event will occur and the impact is the effect or consequence of the event. It has been established that for projects that are implemented in the Russian Federation and financed using capital market instruments, it is advisable to use a risk assessment model based on a multifactorial approach. It was determined that in the case of a comprehensive risk assessment, all potential risks should be taken into account, regardless of the causes of their occurrence, materiality and the availability of control methods to improve the quality of risk management at the strategic level of company management. It is proposed that the model for assessing the risks of an infrastructure project should include an assessment at three stages — pre-investment, project, operation of an infrastructure facility, an integral project risk indicator has been introduced. The procedure for applying the scheme for financing housing construction objects based on the project financing instrument is presented. Calculation of risk index of construction project of residential complex “Metropolia” on the basis of multifactor model is given.