COLUMN EDITOR
PRODUCTION SAFETY
The established practices of safety and risks control and management at designed and operating chemical processes are reviewed within the framework of the general theory for complex systems control and management in a historical retrospective. The prediction (image of the end result) of the 3rd generation is revealed by using conceptual apparatus in the field of safety for engineering and operating that was presented in [1]. The developed theory solves a significant practical issue — the rational (in a format of standardized work) processes, and roles and responsibilities; minimum necessary requirements for tools and key performance indicators are justified to control / manage process safety risks at each production level — operative (shift supervisor), tactical (unit superintendent) and strategic (director, business manager) are presented. The obtained results show that (only) third generation systems for controlling and managing process safety risks are able to implement in practice within a reasonable time frame the accomplishment of ZERO safety objective. Thus, setting the production objective “no hurt to people, no harm to the environment and no damage to business” makes sense in chemical industry due to the fact that accomplishing of such an objective is feasible and reasonably practicable.
DISCUSSION CLUB
The concepts of risk and the so-called risk-based approach are currently very popular in a wide variety of areas of public life. The success of this relatively new approach is largely determined by the quality of its methodological and technical elaboration. Meanwhile, a thorough analysis of the current domestic regulatory framework has shown that the most important issues of the methodology of this approach are far from a satisfactory solution, which causes excessive uncertainty in the quantitative estimates obtained with its help. This uncertainty, the presence of which is usually not recognized, in its predominant part has a subjective origin. It is the possibility of obtaining a quantitative measure of dangers of various kinds, allowing their comparison and ranking, that makes this approach so attractive and promising. The article analyzes the current domestic methodological basis for the analysis and quantitative assessment of the technogenic risk of its two types and six varieties. The available alternative options for assessing the possibility of adverse events and the main unresolved problems of assessing their scale were considered. T he article consists of three parts, united by a methodological analysis of the current domestic regulatory framework of the concept of technogenic risk, its types and varieties: a) in its first part, methodological approaches to the interpretation of six varieties of technogenic risk are analyzed in detail, the problems of each of them are noted; b) the second part of the article is devoted to the analysis of methods for assessing such a component of technogenic risk as the possibility of an undesirable event (damage); c) the third part of the article analyzes the problems of assessing its other component — the amount of damage.
FINANCIAL RISK
The article pays attention to theoretical and methodological approaches to assessing and predicting the risks of financial and economic activities of the enterprise. Models of analytical theory and practice cited in the works of various authors, including the authors of the presented article, are analyzed. T he author's approach to calculation of enterprise risk forecast on the basis of economic and mathematical model is offered. T he author's approach involves assessment and predictive risk modeling based on a set of key indicators of financial and economic activities within the framework of the basic model of the enterprise with a set of stable indicators in the system of components of the material block (production and personnel condition) and the financial block (financial condition). Predictive modeling is based on current formulas for assessing key risks, and in this study it is disclosed using the example of a set of key indicators of the financial unit.
RISK MANAGEMENT
The article provides an analysis of the foreign and national regulatory framework in terms of applying a risk-based approach to technical inspection — inspection taking into account risk factors during the operation of technical devices at hazardous production facilities. The current regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation, possible ways of applying the inspection taking into account risk factors in the Russian Federation are considered. An implementation solution was proposed, the consequences of the implementation of the inspection, taking into account risk factors in the Russian Federation, were analyzed.
This article provides an example of using the methodology described in API 581 3rd Edition to calculate the inspection interval of a heat exchanger tube bundle. The calculation process, the concept of determining the probability, consequences, and risk of failure are described in detail. API 581 3rd Edition has been shown to be an effective tool for achieving acceptable risk levels. A comparison of inspection intervals in the presence and absence of inspection data at the maximum permissible probability of failure is given.
SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL FORECASTING
An approach to assessing the quality of scientific and technological forecasts for the development of science and technology in the field of ensuring national defense and state security is proposed. Using this approach in developing appropriate methods and techniques will allow making informed decisions in this area.
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)