COLUMN EDITOR
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK
The article is devoted to the features of the organic matter modelling. Carbon and nitrogen soil cycles, which are formed as a result of agricultural and natural use must be taken into account during mathematical simulation of arable and virgin soils. Mathematic, imitation and physical models are considered. Approaches to the quantitative assessment of the components of the biogeochemical carbon cycle, including the dual role of soil as a sink and a source of greenhouse gases, are considered. The interaction of the carbon- and nitrogen-mineralizing ability of soils is evaluated, and the possibility of assessing the influence of climatic and anthropogenic factors is shown. The biogeochemical technologies and models are suggested for managing the environ[1]mental risks related to GHG emissions.
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK
The article considers the main modern global geopolitical problems, among which we include hazardous natural processes, natural disasters, emergencies and the resulting risk of environmental management. Natural disasters and natural catastrophes cause today colossal material and moral damage practically in all countries of the world and their regions, in geopolitical associations, as well as on the scale of the whole planet. The reasons for this are both natural and anthropogenic factors. The former include dramatic changes in the Earth’s natural environment and climate, melting of sea, cover and mountain-valley glaciers, rising sea levels and flooding of coastal lands, melting of permafrost soils and the revival of pathogenic microorganisms, etc. The second includes population growth, primarily urban population growth, environmental pollution, hunger and poverty, localized wars, terrorism, etc. In the current geopolitical situation, risk of environmental management is considered in the article from the perspective of management theory as a risk associated with the loss of natural assets and services by states. It affects business and economy, economic activity, people, society and social institutions, which creates already economic, market and socio-political risks. The loss of natural resource potential entails the emergence of systemic geopolitical risk, since natural resources and services such as clean air, abundant fresh water, fertile soils, stable climate, represent vital public goods on which the functioning of society depends. In the conditions of global natural disasters, high efficiency of risk of environmental management can be ensured only on the basis of a special system to support the processes of self-organization and anticollapse self-tuning integration of segments of geoinformation systems and intelligent services adaptable to conditions of known, predictable and unknown nature.
NATURAL RISK
The available information on the values of the factors of congestion formation in the river bed makes it possible to assess the probability of its occurrence. Regression analysis of probability and factor values allows you to build a relationship between these values, but it is quite problematic to perform it using the usual methods of statistical processing due to the fact that the dependent variable is discrete, binary. The article presents an approach to assessing the likelihood of congestion from the point of view of classifying the facts of congestion and its absence depending on the values of the factors of congestion formation. As a result, a model was obtained for determining the probability of congestion in the riverbed, which is based on the method of logistic transformation.
Digital Financial Risk
The article examines digital financial markets in the context of their formation and development, and the role of innovative digital technologies in these processes. The emphasis is placed on the process of transformation of financial relationships of subjects and the resulting transformations of economic risks and effects. The foreign experience of determining digital financial risks and risk management concepts is analyzed. Based on the studied material, conclusions are drawn about the nature of the digital transformation of financial markets and the relevance of the application of standards and concepts of economic risk management.
Design Risk
The urgency of the problem under consideration is due to the increase in the number of infrastructure facilities under construction under the project financing scheme, in connection with which developers are faced with the need to identify and assess project risks. Risks arising at the stage of construction and operation of the infrastructure facility were identified. Approaches to project risk assessment were studied. The essence of an integrated approach to risk assessment is to consider and take into account all risk impacts in their total volume over the analyzed period of time. A rating approach to risk assessment involves assessing the potential impact of risks based on the likelihood that an event will occur and the impact is the effect or consequence of the event. It has been established that for projects that are implemented in the Russian Federation and financed using capital market instruments, it is advisable to use a risk assessment model based on a multifactorial approach. It was determined that in the case of a comprehensive risk assessment, all potential risks should be taken into account, regardless of the causes of their occurrence, materiality and the availability of control methods to improve the quality of risk management at the strategic level of company management. It is proposed that the model for assessing the risks of an infrastructure project should include an assessment at three stages — pre-investment, project, operation of an infrastructure facility, an integral project risk indicator has been introduced. The procedure for applying the scheme for financing housing construction objects based on the project financing instrument is presented. Calculation of risk index of construction project of residential complex “Metropolia” on the basis of multifactor model is given.
Budget Risk
The article is devoted to organizational issues of the procedure for planning and implementing internal financial audits in government bodies and institutions of the budgetary system, taking into account budgetary risks. Particular attention is paid to the stages of the audit event and innovations from 2024.
RISK ASSESSMENT
The article continues the author's previous work in the field of developing requirements and characteristics of assessment indicators and metrics. In addition to the revised list of requirements, based on experience in assessing and planning processes in the field of public administration, two more lists are proposed. The first originates in the development of key performance indicators (KPI). The source of the characteristics from the second list is experience in the field of data analysis and handling.
The purpose of the work is to form, based on the research experience in the EMERCOM of Russia, the development of KPIs and the analysis of data from an updated list of general requirements for assessment indicators in order to improve the quality of the latter.
The main research method is a critical analysis of the author's own research experience, his experience in the field of data analysis, as well as the analysis of literary sources in the field of KPI development and data analysis. The results obtained can be used when choosing the composition of indicators as part of any implementation of the assessment procedure (or preparation for such procedure).
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)