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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 20, No 4 (2023)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-4

COLUMN EDITOR

NATURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS

10-27 162
Abstract

This article presents global trends in natural disaster risk growth that are driven by a changing climate and progressive human intervention in the natural environment. To mitigate these consequences, possible areas of activity of the functional and territorial subsystems of the unified state system for the prevention and elimination of emergency situations are proposed (RSCHS).

28-42 173
Abstract

Based on long-term proprietary and literary data, the indicators of the accumulation of persistent organochlorine pesticides (POP) in human biological substrates and, above all, in breast milk are given. It is also important to assess the source and time of DDT application. A method for assessing these factors has been developed and a patent of the Russian Federation for invention No. 2701554 has been obtained. The invention can be used to identify, according to monitoring data, the source and time of contamination of the main components of the environment — soil and /or water and human biological substrates — blood and / or breast milk with the persistent organochlorine pesticide DDT, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane. The assessment of the risk of contamination of the environment and human biological substrates with the pesticide DDT and its metabolites is given.

EPIDEMIOLOGICAL RISKS

44-52 212
Abstract

The article considers automation of the identification of patients with acute respiratory viral diseases at an early stage in order to prevent the further spread of diseases in an unfavorable epidemiological situation.

Setting the task: analysis of socio-physiological risks affecting the health of a serviceman, and the development of a software complex that compares risk factors affecting the development of acute respiratory viral diseases with body temperature to prevent the spread of these diseases.

SECURITY OF REGIONS

54-67 220
Abstract

The scientific article is devoted to a comprehensive assessment of the food security of the region (based on the materials of the Kirov region). The relevance of the study is due to the fact that food security is experiencing many risks. This topic is especially important in connection with the introduction of many economic sanctions against Russia by Western countries in recent years. In February 2022, the Russian Federation launched a special military operation in connection with which new packages of sanctions were announced against Russia by a number of countries. Due to the increased geographical tension, the volatility of the stock and foreign exchange markets has increased significantly since February 2022, there has been an increase in loan rates, a decline in the ruble exchange rate, and the termination of supplies by a number of foreign companies. The Company considers these events as non-correctable events after the reporting date. At a time when the Russian Federation is forced to conduct a special military operation aimed at protecting the citizens of our country and ensuring security from strategic threats from the outside, it is important to carry out a comprehensive assessment to achieve the main goal — ensuring food security in the region.

 Assessment and monitoring of food security levels are crucial for structural and economic changes in the agricultural sector of the region’s economy. The article discusses the importance of a comprehensive assessment of food safety according to generalized physical and economic indicators of availability, sufficiency and quality of food in the region.

RISK MANAGEMENT

68-77 239
Abstract

Benchmarking is the most effective way to improve the enterprise. The risk management system
helps to minimize threats and improve the efficiency of the organization’s business processes. The
article discusses the best practices of using a risk-oriented approach in the activities of petrochemical and oil and gas enterprises.

78-86 189
Abstract

The article discusses the formation of approaches to limiting the impact of risks on supply chains. The concept of the supply chain is defined as a combination of internal and external participants in relation to the company, whose activities are directly and indirectly aimed at meeting the needs of the company. The classical supply chain is considered, key aspects of sustainable development related to the production of products are identified, which should be taken into account when managing the supply chain, the most typical risks arising in the supply chain are identified. Two stages of chain risk assessment have been established - determination of risk events and assessment of probability and severity of risk event. It has been established that the factor in the formation of a chain risk management plan is the consideration of changes in consumer behavior. It is determined what features should be taken into account when developing a supply chain risk management plan. The concept of supply chain sustainability is considered, which includes the ability of the supply chain to respond to failures and recover from them. It is noted that the sustainability of the supply chain is associated with the changing characteristics of enterprises that are currently undergoing changes, in particular, a setting is proposed that is completely based on robotic labor. It has been found that supply chain sustainability models are needed to achieve business continuity goals, and peripheral computing will gain popularity as there is a shift towards supply chain independence of digital twin technology and supply chain resiliency complement each other because a program that allows fault simulations to run can increase the level of supply chain resiliency in an enterprise.



ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)