Since 2014, the problem of sanctions and counter-sanctions has not left the front pages of popular and scientific publications and most information resources. A large number of works by domestic and foreign authors, consulting agencies gave both positive and negative forecasts of the impact of anti-Russian sanctions on the country’s economy as a whole. Over the course of 8 years, various types of sanctions were introduced that dealt an economic blow to both individuals and sectors of the economy and specific corporations that are represented in different regions of the country, which undoubtedly carries risks for the socio-economic security of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The subjects of the Russian Federation have a different structure of the economy and the level of socio-economic development, while the impact of sanctions on the level of socio-economic security of individual regions and the possibilities of leveling them have not yet been sufficiently investigated, which gives this topic high relevance. The purpose of the study is to assess the nature of the sanctions and their impact on the socio-economic security of the regions. The work uses bibliographic, analytical, statistical and mathematical research methods, analyzes open statistical data in the context of the regions of the Volga Federal District (VFD). As a result of the study, an analysis of the degree of influence of sanctions pressure on the indicators of foreign trade operations, the availability of technologies, the level of overdue loans, and the financial results of companies’ activities was presented. As a result of the study, factors were identified that have a greater impact on the state of the regional economy, indicators, indicators and directions for reducing the impact of sanctions on the socio-economic security of the Volga Federal District regions.

The article proposed a method for assessing the level of economic security of the region, which relies on the study of the value of basic indicators, with the calculation of integral indicators. The development of methodological provisions for assessing the economic security of the region is relevant from the point of view of the need to make effective management decisions for the timely detection and elimination of possible dangers and threats, and to reduce the risks of economic security in the country and its regions.

In recent years, economic security has undergone a number of major changes. Economic warfare and sovereignty have infiltrated strategic thinking and political discourse, along with free trade and attractiveness, which have so far been the main economic policies of most countries. The unprecedented polarization of global geopolitical relations and the increased stakes in technological superiority around new generations of telecommunications networks and data processing have been the catalyst for this paradigm shift . In this new situation, the strengths of the regional economy are also assets that can be used by large competing forces, oft en better equipped for this purpose.

Bringing the basic indicators of the economic security of a particular region into a comparable form by normalizing them relative to the average values for all territories of the country. A rationing of basic indicators for assessing the state of economic security of the region is proposed. Economic security was assessed by calculating the integral coefficient, using the method of multivariate comparative analysis. To assess the economic security of the region, a group of indicators of macroeconomic development, social development, financial security, environmental security, personnel security was used, allowing to get an idea of economic security in general. It is proposed for each safety indicator to determine the best (reference) value, which is taken as a unit, then the indicators are compared for each safety component with the standard.

Traditional models of forecasting market and economic behaviour (belonging to the class of purposeful structural-complex systems) are based in most cases on the analysis of the existing and retrospective balance of resource extraction by world exporters and resource consumption by importers, considering the development forecasts of their industrial production and power engineering. The availability of long-term back data makes it possible to use production functions or multi-factor regression models to make short-term forecasts. As uncertainty increases with the length of the forecast horizon, the accuracy of the forecasts decreases. The corridor of acceptable values in the forecasting model is therefore determined by the degree of variability of the backward time series used to build the model. The latter in turn depends on the growth (decline) of demand/consumption in the past. For modelling, the maximum discrepancies in the data are often smoothed out, which leads to a situation where the model makes a forecast on the basis of a time series that differs from the initial one, and therefore it is unable to predict the approaching crisis. The approach proposed by the authors is based on the actual (or declared) value of the maximum and minimum variability of the forecast indicators, which defines a forecast corridor in each time interval set for reaching the target state of the indicators. Thus, it is not a point value that is assessed, but its achievability within the corridor of admissible values and the existing quality of the developing system.

The article presents methods for managing natural and environmental risks in the conditions of increasing continentality of the climate in the Polar regions of gas production. It is shown that natural risks associated with the rise in summer temperatures can manifest themselves in the form of various epizootics. The leading factor in the manifestation of such natural risks are large-scale disturbances of tundra soils, in particular, on the Yamal Peninsula due to overgrazing of reindeer. Environmental risks are associated with the impact of gas industry on the processes of eutrophication of tundra ecosystems, which manifests itself in the form of a change in the predominant forms of vegetation and increased thawing of soils. Against the backdrop of an increase in the continentality of the climate, in recent years, on the territory of the Taz Peninsula, biogeochemical technologies for the reclamation of tundra soils, adaptive to the climatic conditions of the Far North, have been successfully tested, based on methods protected by patents of the Russian Federation.

The paper examines the possibilities of improving the accuracy of estimating the value of an investment and construction project based on various analysis and evaluation tools. Accurate estimates can be achieved using the Project Value Model at all stages of the project lifecycle. The stages of estimating the cost of an investment and construction project are considered, including costing, i.e. determining the costs of individual works depending on the calculation of the volume of work and pricing — determining the total cost of the project taking into account cost, profit and contingency provisions. The work carried out a comparative analysis of the methods of estimating the cost of the project: methods of high-level assessment, analog and method of parametric estimates, detailed assessment of the project costs, the use of which should be carried out iteratively. It is noted that risk management tools should be considered in combination with the project cost assessment due to the dependence of the goal in identifying and assessing risks with maximum performance and lowest cost. The article studied various approaches to assessment, in particular: estimating the cost of the project at the pre-investment stage in the form of a rough (approximate) value; estimate the project cost at the business planning stage as the estimated value of the cost justification Project Cost Estimation in the Process of Costing by Activity Type — Budget Cost Assessment Estimate the final planned project cost to be included in the project budget — accurately estimate the project cost. The article proposes the use of various tools and methods of risk analysis at the stages of the life cycle of an investment and construction project.