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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 18, No 2 (2021)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2021-18-2

COLUMN EDITOR

СLIMATE RISK

12-33 1506
Abstract

This literature review summarizes the results of international studies conducted by WHO, WMO, EU, and other organizations, in the areas of assessment of climate change-induced urban health risks, and development of action plans for adaptation of public health care and other public governance bodies to climate change. The results of studies of the relationships between heat waves, cold spells, and mortality rates conducted in Russian cities have also been critically reviewed. The study cites included the largest cities (Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, etc.) situated in various climate zones: Arctic, South European part of Russia, continental and monsoon climate zones. These studies showed that heat waves in the cities with moderately continental climate typically lead to greater increases in all-cause mortality rates than cold spells, relative to the cities located in other climate zones. At the same time, the health impacts of cold spells were more pronounced than those of heat waves in the north cities, which was not observed in the Russian South or Middle Siberia cities. On average, cold spells are characterized by greater health risks in the north cities than in the south cities. The values of the 3rd and 97th percentiles of long-term distributions of daily mean temperatures can be used as the threshold values for hazardous cold and heat waves. The health action plans should be activated when daily mean temperatures fall below the cold threshold, or exceed the heat threshold. The values of temperature thresholds depend upon local climates and are similar to hygienic standards. Russia has adopted a National Plan for adaptation to health risks induced by climate change. This plan includes the measures specifically aimed at reductions of excess mortality during heat waves and cold spells. The National Plan prescribes that similar plans should be developed for all administrative subjects of the Russian Federation. Implementation of heat wave (or cold spell) early warning systems in combination with other preventive measures can effectively reduce the numbers of excess deaths during extreme weather events.

RISK MANAGEMENT

34-42 843
Abstract

The article discusses issues related to the transition of the oil and gas industry to a low-carbon economy. Within the framework of the scenario approach the key risks of the transition period are considered. The importance of managing climate risks for organizations in the oil and gas industry is emphasized. The prospect of including climatic risks in the general risk management system of the organization is shown. Examples of the implementation of new approaches to climate risk management and adaptation to climate change in Russia and abroad are given.

44-51 443
Abstract

This article examines the large-scale threats associated with the emergence of pandemics, as well as the actions of public authorities to mitigate their consequences. Possible areas of work to reduce the risk of coronavirus infections are summarized.

52-59 632
Abstract

Automation of risk management helps companies get more accurate, structured and accessible data for their operations. This leads to implementing of data-driven decision making (DDDM).
Due to the implementation of DDDM, interaction between risk management participants has been automated.
The automation of risk management has simplified data incoming so that managers can have accurate and updated data whenever they need so they can prevent risks, report them as soon as they arise and manage them.

RISK ASSESSMENT

60-71 688
Abstract

Aim. In many fields, the produced gas contains corrosive CO2, which, in combination with moisture and other factors, stimulates the intensive development of corrosion processes, including local ones, which requires careful attention to the assessment of the corrosiveness of operating fluids in order to select effective anti-corrosion protection. Ensuring reliable and safe operation of equipment and pipelines prevents not only man-made risks, but also no less important environmental risks, which are especially dangerous for marine underwater facilities for Arctic coastal facilities.
Methods.
The analysis of normative and technical documentation in the field of assessment of corrosion risks, aggressive factors of internal corrosion and operating conditions of gas and gas condensate fields has been carried out.
Results.
One of the criteria for assessing the corrosion hazard is the corrosion rate of steel under operating conditions. However, the normative documents predominantly regulate the general corrosion rate, which evaluates the uniform thinning of the metal. But the rate of local corrosion is in no way taken into account, which is most relevant precisely for the conditions of carbon dioxide corrosion of steel. Another tool for identifying risks can be a corrosion allowance to the pipe wall thickness, which should be selected at the design stage and which is provided to compensate for corrosion losses during the operation of gas pipelines. It is shown that the minimum corrosion allowance (3 mm) specified in the main regulatory documents is insufficient, especially for offshore facilities.
Conclusion. The experience of operating gas production facilities confirms that the rate of local corrosion can reach several mm/year. To limit this, effective anti-corrosion measures should be chosen, for example, the use of corrosion inhibitors, and a reasonable level of corrosion allowance should be provided that would take into account the corresponding level of corrosion risks at the gas production facility.

DISCUSSION CLUB

72-87 428
Abstract

The article discusses human risks in the digital world, taking into account the influence of modern technology on its biology, the possibility of its transformation and merging with information technology.



ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)