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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 17, No 3 (2020)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2020-17-3

COLUMN EDITOR

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK

10-15 699
Abstract
The problem of risk management of underground water contamination due to oil migration from the soil is solved. Examples of emergency oil contamination of soil as a source of entering this pollutant to underground waters are given. The method of prevention of oil migration to underground waters from contaminated soil, protected by the patent of the Russian Federation on invention No. 2692616 is considered.
16-29 682
Abstract
The problems of ecological risks and technogenic hazards in the coal mining in Tuva based on the materials of geoecological research of the Tuva Institute for the Integrated Development of Natural Resources of the SB RAS and Tuva State University in 2015—2019 are considered. The results of coal analyzes of two typical coal mining of the Ulug-Khem coal basin with open and underground mining are presented, and the danger of dust and noise pollution of nearby pastures, catastrophic pollution of coal from the spawning of the Elegest spawning river, fires due to spontaneous combustion of coal are emphasized. There is possible influence of trace elements of coal — heavy metals, arsenic, mercury, etc. on the environment. Recommendations on improving the design and organization of coal mining enterprises, in particular on the placement of dumps and reclamation of their surface, as well as on the mandatory use of treatment facilities are made in the article.
30-43 775
Abstract
The article deals with the risks associated with total plastic contamination of the planet, including the territory of Russia.

TECHNOGENIC RISK

44-55 880
Abstract
In every technological process, there is a risk of an emergency or any other emergency that could result in death, material damage, or environmental damage. For Russia, the problem of breakdown of heat supply enterprises is especially acute, since the climatic conditions in its larger territory are quite severe, while the level of wear of the housing stock and engineering facilities is high. The relevance of the research topic is due to the increasing level of risk of accidents at heat supply enterprises working with hazardous chemicals. The following factors affect the operational safety of facilities in this industry: the reliability of the protection of workers and employees from the effects of emergencies; protection against secondary damaging factors; reliability of the organization’s supply system with everything necessary for functioning; sustainability and continuity of production and civil defense management; preparedness of the facility for emergency rescue and other emergency operations and more. In the process of the study, basic information about the activities of the district thermal station was studied, an analysis of the causes of emergencies at it was conducted, probable scenarios for the development of possible accidents were developed and characterized, and characteristics of the damaging factors and their negative impact zones were presented. Of all the possible scenarios, the most dangerous scenario associated with the boiler rupture, as well as the most probable scenario, was the complete/partial depressurization of the boiler equipment. The risks of accidents that are possible during the operation of the heat station (boiler room) are analyzed, and a set of measures is proposed to prevent and minimize the consequences of possible emergencies at the livelihood of the population with justification for their economic feasibility.

RISK MANAGEMENT

56-65 993
Abstract
Risks are inevitable in any construction project. Risk management methodology is used to address or mitigate their impact in the management of construction projects. In recent years, in the fields of architecture and construction, the likelihood of risks is increased due to the increasing structural complexity, the volume of construction works of the project, the application of new and complex construction methods. However, experience with risk management has shown limited practical impact on the development of systemic risk management in the construction project. Information modeling (BIM) technologies play an important role in risk management during the design, construction and maintenance phases of a building facility. Based on the development of information technologies, risk management should be integrated with modern IT processes of construction project management. Since BIM implementation for risk management of construction projects is still limited, the BIM system implementation must be developed to address risks throughout the construction project lifecycle. This article discusses the applications of BIM for building risk management during the lifecycle of a project. These recommendations illustrate the use of BIM in risk identification, response and monitoring. The findings show that one of the most significant issues is the lack of regulations to align BIM with risk management in the project development and execution process. The development of regulations should cover the model of risk migration, cycles of risk management, flexible structure of the risk management service at all stages of the life cycle of the construction project.
66-73 1273
Abstract

The article provides a brief overview of the main ßunctional areas of the divisions of a large transport and logistics company, JSC "Russian Railways". The main risks of railway transport are highlighted. Risks related to logistics in the context of the main business blocks of JSC "Russian Railways" and their functional divisions are highlighted.

Some methods of logistics risk management for cargo transportation by rail, which are widely used in logistics, are considered. The analysis of the main logistics risks in the transport of goods by rail using such methods is carried out. This includes the classification of logistics risks. The obtained quantitative and qualitative data are systematized and structured in the form of a semantic model of the main logistics risks and risk factors that led to the violation of the terms of cargo delivery during railway transportation.

When building the model, we used previously conducted studies of risk factors emanating from third-party organizations that perform work, services, and deliveries based on contracts for divisions of JSC "Russian Railways".

The obtained research results in the form of a semantic model are proposed to be used as a tool for managing logistics risks.

74-81 757
Abstract
When making decisions in the field of medium and large business, top management of companies are guided, as a rule, by intuitive considerations. This method is based both on personal experience and the experience of industry colleagues. Intuition can work on non-complex logical tasks, but in the case of complex logistics, the leader is forced to act at his own risk and there is a big chance of an unsuccessful result. Losing is always expensive, given the great competition in the market in almost all areas. In a difficult situation, as a rule, you need a good adviser, a specialist with high professional skills. The proposed method is based on the application of probability theory, a science that studies random events and quantities. This article discusses several practical aspects of the economy and proposes a solution in terms of probability theory.
82-89 786
Abstract
The article considers the relevance of the risk of professional responsibility in medical activities. Russian healthcare is still on the periphery of risk management studies, and most studies include only different approaches to classifying the risks of medical organizations. Despite the growing threat of prosecution for medical error, the use of insurance tools to protect the medical community has not yet been widely implemented. Based on the analysis of the existing practice of medical liability insurance in Russia and abroad, we offer individual liability insurance for medical workers. The complex model of risk insurance of medical organizations and medical workers is substantiated.

INFORMATION WINDOW

90-98 560
Abstract

This article is devoted to some experience of the All-Russian Public Organization “Russian Scientific Society for Risk Analysis” (hereinafter referred to as the Society), which celebrated its 22 anniversary on October 2019, 16.

This article presents the short experience, analytical, scientific-practical and organizationalcoordination activities of the Society in the field of improvement of the disaster prevention mechanism through disaster risk management.

The most deployed, the period from 2016 to 2019 is presented.

It was during this period that the Company managed to organize the implementation of relevant practical measures in priority areas in the field of analysis and assessment of risks of natural and man-made emergencies at the municipal and territorial levels, improvement of the mechanism of their management, to outline ways of further development of the directions laid down in the works 2016—2018.



ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)