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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 13, No 1 (2016)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2016-13-1

INTERVIEW NUMBERS

RISK VALUE

12-22 484
Abstract

Modern methods of evaluating the economic equivalent of the “value of life” (VSL) have been reviewed. It has been shown that methods based on determining the “willingness to pay» (WTP) are currently prevailing. Based on the analysis of foreign and domestic publications distinct proposals on the problem of evaluating the “value of life” and applying the results to the feasibility study of structures and events ensuring their safety have been made. The ability to estimate the effectiveness of rescue and evacuation services from danger zones has been pointed out. Guidelines for the practical implementation of estimates for the “value of life” via modern IT-technologies have also been provided. Examples of practical application of these recommendations have been introduced including the one for theCzech Republic, which is close in mentality to our country’s population.

EMERGENCY RISKS

24-31 422
Abstract

The paper focuses on some of the shortcomings of methods assessing the effectiveness of the implementation of government programs developed in accordance with the requirements. Using government program “The protection of the population and territories from emergency situations, fire safety and safety on water” as example, it offers an alternative version of the method, free from the need to use expert judgment and gives a complete and detailed picture of the implementation of the government program.

32-35 427
Abstract

The article discusses modern technologies of emergency response to ensure comprehensive safety of citizens.

36-45 7332
Abstract

This paper discusses the use of social networking services for rapid response to emergencies. It also analyzes the experience of attracting information generated by social media users in emergencies for use in the work of rescue services and emergency response. The possibility of improving the quality of rescue and other emergency operations at the expense of information support of activities in the exploration phase of the emergency area, the detection of victims and clarification of the scope of the disaster are substantiated. The authors propose a concept of the information system that enables collecting and automated analysis of messages, and list the basic functionality of the specified system. The authors focus on the involvement of geographic information systems as a core technology to support decision making in emergency situations. The article describes the prototype of the developed software and an example of its use.

RISK MODELING

46-51 335
Abstract

In the previous article the system and dynamic model of informing the population during an accident is given in chemically dangerous object by means of services of cellular communication. The results of modeling actions of people in the specified conditions allowing to determine the rational frequency of mailing messages and to estimate an informing contribution to realization of protective measures are given in the present article. These results are the basis for recommendations about informing the population in the conditions of emergency situations.

52-59 617
Abstract

The article discusses the individual fire risk and how to reduce it. The necessity of creating a system of evacuation of the building in case of fire, which will reduce the risk of fire. The model of foot traffic in the building, which gives a minimum time of evacuation of the building - RINTD-Evac. The results of testing the model and comparing it with the Pathfinder and FDS + Evac. Presented by the use of software RINTD-Evac to design restrictions that are intended to reduce fire risk in the individual buildings.

60-69 503
Abstract

The actual development of science-based approach to build «event tree» to quantify the risk of accidents at hazardous production facilities. Analyzed Modern logic «event trees» of existing regulations is analyzed. Findings, recommendations for their elimination are giver.

70-81 723
Abstract

The assessment of influence of various risks on the budgetary plan demands application of integrated methods. In article it is offered for consideration of 15 risks grouped in 3 groups on 5 risks. The variety of risks doesn’t allow to put them in the traditional ways. In each case preliminary research of various risks for the purpose of development of the appropriate measures according to their account and compensation of negative consequences is necessary. One of stages of such research is the analysis of communications between risks with use of tools of the theory of graph.

82-85 423
Abstract

The application of fuzzy multi-criteria analysis for selection of the optimal strategy to reduce the risk of accidents and incidents is considered in the article.

TO REMEMBER

86-91 459
Abstract

The article speaks about the contribution of Professor M. M. Mashimov, who on November 24 2015 celebrated grantelk 85th anniversary of the birth, in the solution of scientific and technical problems in geodesy and geodynamics, which are fundamental coordinate and time support of the armed forces of the Russian system of prevention and liquidation emergency situations, navigation, natural resources exploration the land and the oceans, man-made factors with the use of modern and prospectsdifferent methods of geodesy.



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ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)