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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 16, No 2 (2019)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-2

ANNIVERSARY

NATURAL RISK

10-35 1046
Abstract

In recent decades, hazardous natural processes, natural disasters and catastrophes in theRussian Federationhave noticeably intensified. This is due both to global climate and the natural environment change, and to the rapid growth of human impact on landscapes and ecosystems. The current situation has determined a significant increase in the number and scale of emergency situations of natural and natural-technogenic character, material and moral damage among the population and economic infrastructure. Hazardous natural processes have become the regulator of the development of society through a direct impact on the state of the economy and social sphere in theRussia, which forces management structures at all levels — from federal to municipal — to switch to the principles of admissible risk in administrative and territorial mechanisms. And the implementation of these mechanisms is impossible without strict accounting and control of hazardous natural processes, their functioning, dynamics and evolution. The review given in the article shows the main directions of such activities in relation to the subjects of theRussian Federationand large natural complexes.

36-49 1371
Abstract

The risk of a tsunami in an operational mode when there is a direct threat of a tsunami is considered. It is shown that the tsunami risk in such events can be controlled, i.e. to influence the severity of the consequences (the amount of damage) in different situations. This mainly concerns the adequacy of the operational (short-term) tsunami forecast.

The problem is that the warning services declare not only reasonable general alarms, but also differentiated by the degree of danger for specific areas of the coasts. Ideally, the tsunami alarm should be declared with reasonable advance only at those points where the tsunami is a real danger, and be accompanied by information on the arrival times of the first wave, the maximum wave, their amplitudes, as well as the expected end time of the tsunami (tsunami alarm) in accordance with the definition of the tsunami forecast formulated by IOC UNESCO in 2013.

It is shown on the examples of the events of 2006—2014 that the rapid method of operational tsunami forecast, using data on the formed tsunami, obtained in the open ocean, in contrast to the current regulations, will allow the warning services to decide on the announcement of tsunami alarm with reasonable advance only in those settlements where the tsunami is a real threat, and thereby reduce the number of false tsunami alarms, reduce unnecessary damage.

The problems of operational tsunami forecast are considered and possible ways of their solution are offered.

СLIMATE RISK

50-57 803
Abstract

Some new properties of integral helicity are revealed, in particular, the dipole structure of the structure of its field. Taking this circumstance into account, a more informative and illustrative criterion for evaluating integral helicity is a gradient of integral helicity that is promising in analyzing and forecasting adverse and dangerous weather phenomena.

Using the example of a convective storm inMoscow05.29.2017. Indicators of predictive quality and clarity, used as diagnostic indicators and dangerous weather phenomena. Considering that such a convective storm is predicted in just a couple of hours, or even several tens of minutes, the proposed criterion, which ensures the forecast lead time of about 12 hours, can become an important link in the technological line for predicting dangerous weather phenomena and a significant reserve for reducing economic damage due to meteorological reasons.

GEOECOLOGICAL RISKS

58-69 818
Abstract

The article is devoted to the issues of environmental ratings as an indicators of the process of geoenvironmental risk (GER) management of Russian oil and gas companies, operating in theArctic. The authors demonstrate the algorithm of GER management model processes and reveal the need to use environmental ratings for the oil and gas industry. Particular attention is given to the issues of rating results of Environmental Responsibility of Oil and Gas companies in Russia that was held in 2014—2017 years. It was conducted by the cooperative initiative by CREON Group and WWF Russia with participation of National Rating Agency. The authors have selected from all Russian oil and gas companies only those who operating in the Arctic region and they have analyzed them. The rating's results show that the leaders are companies whose management pays special attention to gas. They are Sakhalin Energy (Sakhalin-2), Gazprom and Zarubezhneft. The authors point out that the environmental rating of Russian oil and gas companies can serve as an indicator of GER management, as a tool to inform foreign investors about the environmental impact to ensure the ecological safety of the region.

SAFETY ACTIVITY

70-86 985
Abstract

It is showed that the key factor at the solution of problems of an estimation and control of risks for social, natural and technogenic spheres is use of the concept of the analysis and monitoring of the risks, founded on determination of base parameters of a current and probable dangerous state of analyzed socially-natural-technogenic system. Importance of safety maintenance and protect-ability tasks of basic practices and appearances in such system is interlinked to spreading of scientific possibilities and actual methods of decrease of risks, and also with an in-depth analysis of a spectrum of dangers, defiances, threats, crises, emergency situations, disasters at increment of losses from them to a person, a society, the state, an environment and an ability to live of infrastructure. The universal quantitative measure of probabilities of initiation and implementation of the indicated unfavorable events and processes in a combination to accompanying them losses are risks of the stacked state and prospects of evolution of considered system. Builted on results of corresponding comprehensive analysis the theory, algorithms and program complexes for determination, maintenances and raises of protectability of objects in social, natural and technogenic spheres taking into account the bundled to them risks are scientific baseline for a justification of decrease of their interlinked values to acceptable level. Making and service of objects and an infrastructure of ability to live for a person, a society and the state on the basis of a meeting the requirements to acceptable levels of risks and to guard of objects from accidents and disasters present an essence of transition to new level of the state strategic planning certified to the strategy of national safety of Russia.

ENTERPRISE RISKS

88-94 808
Abstract

Among business structures leading international business, there is not a single business without risks. According to the author, it does not depend on the field of work or the type of activity of the enterprise. The field of hydropower is exposed to risks, perhaps, to a greater extent, because in addition to the main business risks, risks associated with the implementation of projects that depend on renewable energy sources are added. The purpose of this study is to find the main indicators of the performance of hydropower enterprises to assess the risks of their international projects. The study used an analytical method. One of the risk assessment tools is a balanced scorecard. In this article, the author reviewed the work of a similar subject of the authors, published in the journal “Problems of Risk Analysis”. Some aspects of the formation of the system as a tool for assessing the risks of business structures and businesses operating in the field of hydropower are covered. The scope of the results obtained can be a set of management decisions made by the management of hydropower enterprises, as well as in the development of a risk management methods. It is a conscious and rational attitude to risk that expands the possibilities for successful management of international hydropower projects.



ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)