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Issues of Risk Analysis

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Vol 16, No 1 (2019)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-1

COLUMN EDITOR

РИСК КОРРУПЦИИ

10-23 794
Abstract
The article presents the study of the corruption call (CC) results which implies the development of the corresponding threat, which requires a response to save the nation and the country created by it. The main emphasis is on an a priori assessment of the measure of the possibility of CC and the expected social and economic damage from it. The main tools used are graph-analytical and logical-probabilistic modeling, as well as the system analysis of the circumstances of the spread of corruption based on it and the system synthesis of proposals for its limitation. The assessing criteria of the CC severity is the risk, interpreted as an integral measure of this danger and measured in person-years of lost social time. The models developed by the author are causal diagrams and their mathematical equivalents, taking into account several dozen prerequisites for the appearance of CC and the outcomes of its destructive manifestation. Among the factors of the first group are prevail everything that results from the vicious privatization of the former USSR property and the overconsumption of the Russia citizens, while their negative consequences are various forms of economic, political and moral damage. Considering the specificity of social processes and the limited humanitarian methods of their research, an important place in the article is devoted to evaluating the parameters used in the model using the apparatus of the fuzzy sets theory and automating its system (qualitative and quantitative) analysis.
 
20-23 439
Abstract
The article presents the study of the corruption call (CC) results which implies the development of the corresponding threat, which requires a response to save the nation and the country created by it. The main emphasis is on an a priori assessment of the measure of the possibility of CC and the expected social and economic damage from it. The main tools used are graph-analytical and logical-probabilistic modeling, as well as the system analysis of the circumstances of the spread of corruption based on it and the system synthesis of proposals for its limitation. The assessing criteria of the CC severity is the risk, interpreted as an integral measure of this danger and measured in person-years of lost social time. The models developed by the author are causal diagrams and their mathematical equivalents, taking into account several dozen prerequisites for the appearance of CC and the outcomes of its destructive manifestation. Among the factors of the first group are prevail everything that results from the vicious privatization of the former USSR property and the overconsumption of the Russia citizens, while their negative consequences are various forms of economic, political and moral damage. Considering the specificity of social processes and the limited humanitarian methods of their research, an important place in the article is devoted to evaluating the parameters used in the model using the apparatus of the fuzzy sets theory and automating its system (qualitative and quantitative) analysis.

REGIONAL SAFETY

24-41 1374
Abstract

The article presents a conceptual approach to assessing indicators of economic security in the system of industries (economic activities) of the region’s economy, provides an assessment of the level of economic security from the standpoint of determining a complex parameter for certain types of economic activity of the Kirov region using selected indicators. Unification of types of economic activity and indicators is carried out. Given the rating assessment of economic activities.

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK

42-49 706
Abstract

The risk of chronic and emergency contamination of soils by heavy metals through gas-dust emissions by the method protected by the patent of the Russian Federation No. 2617533 on an invention including contamination diagnostics by means of the dehydrogenase enzyme activity analysis is estimated. This method of diagnostics allows to reduce time, to increase the accuracy and quality of examination on territories with an unsuccessful geoecological situation.

50-59 695
Abstract

Comparative analysis of ecological situation applying the state antipollution hygienic and ecological standards (critical loads) which are calculated on the basis of Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LTRAP) with regards to lead’s soil loads on natural reserves of Crimean peninsula presented herein. Analysis of official data and our own research during long period of time at first sight shows similarity of compared standards, though some of detected disparities give the reason for the conclusion about significantly more informational content of critical loads, as ecosystemic standards, which take into account natural differences in biogeochemical organization of the territories and allow to assess the degree of ecological risk as well as give the opportunity to manage it.

RISK MANAGEMENT

60-67 2511
Abstract

The article substantiates the need to manage the security of business structures. The role of risk management as the basis for ensuring security for their successful operation in a competitive environment is defined. The Russian and foreign practice of risk management of entrepreneurship is considered. Attention is paid to the principles of enterprise risk management, given their characteristics. The approach to the formalization of the degree of risk is analyzed, its drawbacks are noted. The practice of identification, assessment and measurement of risks, their content is covered. A formula for measuring risk based on the probability of its occurrence and the severity of losses has been compiled. The features of foreign risk measurement techniques have been determined. Such risk assessment technologies are described as: expert assessments, statistical data and consideration of factors affecting the degree of risk. The degree of their reliability, merits and demerits is noted. Recommendations on the use of qualitative and quantitative indicators in risk assessment are given. The concept of enterprise security management is proposed.

RISK OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS

68-85 730
Abstract
The article analyzes the experience of constructing and using warning systems in the event of emergencies

CREDIT RISK

86-93 584
Abstract

This article is devoted to the construction of a risk-oriented model of credit risk reduction in the course of the life cycle of the loan in the provision of a commercial Bank loan to a corporate client. The work demonstrates, firstly, the need to introduce innovative solutions that reduce the risk of non-repayment of the loan by the borrower, and secondly — the mechanism of using such elements of the model as a new system of limits and risk profiles, the Institute of underwriting, IRB-approach to determine the risk category of the application and the body authorized to make.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY RISK

94-97 697
Abstract
This article analyses the existing risks in the IT sector, its classification in terms of the influence on the activity of the economic entity, as well as examines the ITAM as an instrument to minimize the effects of negative developments and optimization of all activities in this sphere.


ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)