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The problem of assessing the social risk of emergencies caused by floods, and the formation of ways to solve it
EDN: WQEIDE
Abstract
In today's climate-affected world, there has been a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of floods. Such dangerous phenomena this leads to negative consequences and an increase in social damage.
The article presents the results of the analysis of scientific, methodological literature, standards, considers the terminology, existing methods and approaches to assessing the societal flood risk. Gaps in knowledge and the potential of multidisciplinary approaches to assessing the societal flood risk are identified.
Based on the analysis and synthesis of the research results, it is concluded that the forecast of the number of dead people in the flood scenarios of different probability becomes an important applied problem that can only be solved with the help of a multidisciplinary approach. A scientific problem is formulated and ways to solve it are indicated.
Keywords
flooding,
risk of death in floods,
social risk,
emergency risk assessment,
methods of risk assessment,
uncertainty
Supporting agencies: the authors express their gratitude to the Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor Mikhail Vasilyevich Bolgov for help, ideas and valuable advice in forming approaches and ways to solve the problem of assessing the danger of floods.
About the Authors
Irina Yu. Oltyan
All-Russian Scientific Research Institute for Civil Defence and Emergencies of the EMERCOM of Russia (Federal Science and High Technology Center)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Davydkovskaya str., 7, Moscow, 121352
Elena V. Arefyeva
All-Russian Scientific Research Institute for Civil Defence and Emergencies of the EMERCOM of Russia (Federal Science and High Technology Center)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Davydkovskaya str., 7, Moscow, 121352
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For citations:
Oltyan I.Yu., Arefyeva E.V. The problem of assessing the social risk of emergencies caused by floods, and the formation of ways to solve it. Issues of Risk Analysis. 2025;22(4):74–95. (In Russ.) EDN: WQEIDE
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