Model for Determining the Probability of Congestion in a River Formation
Abstract
The available information on the values of the factors of congestion formation in the river bed makes it possible to assess the probability of its occurrence. Regression analysis of probability and factor values allows you to build a relationship between these values, but it is quite problematic to perform it using the usual methods of statistical processing due to the fact that the dependent variable is discrete, binary. The article presents an approach to assessing the likelihood of congestion from the point of view of classifying the facts of congestion and its absence depending on the values of the factors of congestion formation. As a result, a model was obtained for determining the probability of congestion in the riverbed, which is based on the method of logistic transformation.
About the Author
Yu. A. Tkachenko
Civil Defence Academy of Emercom of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Yuliya A. Tkachenko
Sokolovskaya str., bld. 1А, Moscow region, Khimki,
md. Novogorsk, 141435
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Review
For citations:
Tkachenko Yu.A. Model for Determining the Probability of Congestion in a River Formation. Issues of Risk Analysis. 2024;21(3):42-49. (In Russ.)
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