The Study of the Economic Security of Regions Based on the Assessment of Potential and Risks

The purpose of the study is to highlight independent groups of economic security factors to es- tablish new safety characteristics, including on the basis of existing ones. This study proposes to use a traditional approach, but safety indicators are additionally grouped by factors (indicators) of potential and risk, adding new security aspects. In this case, the characterization of the econo- mic security of the region can be considered in the form of an alternative two-parametric model “Potential-Risk”. The model involves the use of three types of indicators, which, using threshold security levels, are translated into a single scale. The result is presented in the form of a quantita- tive and qualitative interpretation of regional security characteristics, including in the form of potential, risk, economic security, as well as a digital portrait of economic security.

The proposed model allows us to take a fresh look at the consequences of the negative impact of external shocks on the state of economic security, as well as on the ability of regional systems to recover. The work presents the results of the application of this model to assess the economic security in 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in particular, the impact of the sanctions policy of unfriendly countries since 2014, as well as the spread of coronavirus infection in 2020 and post-shaped restoration. It was established that the restoration of economic security in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2021 occurred mainly due to the growth of potential efficiency, the probability of risks remained increased.

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