Natural and Man-Made Risks of the Southern Baikal Area

Objective. In the last decade, there has been a significant increase in natural phenomena, leading to catastrophic consequences. In this regard, there is a need to use science-based risk-oriented approaches to ensure the safety of people and protect the environment. Zoning of territories according to the levels of risk of emergency situations makes it possible to effectively process and respond to risk. This paper presents an analysis of the risks inherent in natural and man-made disasters in the Southern Baikal Area of the Irkutsk Region and a quantitative assessment of their level based on the modern risk analysis methodology.

Methods. We used a retrospective statistical analysis and modeling of possible emergency situations. The processing and synthesis of statistical data was carried out as a whole for the Slyudyansky Municipality of the Irkutsk Region for the period 2015—2019 according to the data of the State Reports “On the State of the Protection of the Population and Territories of the Russian Federation from Natural and Man-made Emergencies” in the relevant years.

Results. We assessed the complex risk indicator of the territory, which consists of the potential territorial risk, and the collective risk indicator, which characterizes the level of damage. We calculated the average individual risk of death of the population as a result of the cumulative impact of the damaging factors of emergency situations. It was shown that it exceeded the values of the acceptable risk adopted for the Irkutsk Region by 4.2 times. Based on the modeling of manmade emergencies with depressurization of containers with hazardous substances transported by rail and modeling of damage during catastrophic earthquakes that are possible in a given area, social risk curves were calculated and built. Based on all the results obtained, the zoning of the territory of the Southern Baikal Area was carried out according to the risks of emergencies.

Conclusion. Based on the assessments of the complex risk, the territory of the Southern Baikal Area of the Irkutsk Region belongs to the zones with increased risk of natural and man-made emergency situations.

1. Garmyshev V.V., Dubrovin D.V., Timofeeva S.S. The pollution of the Baikal Region as a result of combustion of forest combustible materials // Vestnik Irgsha. 2018;(86):71-78, (In Russ.)

2. Dubrovin D.V., Garmyshev V.V., Timofeeva S.S. Air pollution as a result of burning of forest combustible materials in residential, landscape and recreation and suburban zones of cities and settlements of Irkutsk Oblats // XXI Century. Technosphere Safety. 2018;3(2(10)):35-43, (In Russ.), http://dx.doi.org/10.21285/2500-1582-2018-2-35-43

3. Senovsky, Pavel & Bernatík, Aleš & Šenovský, Michail & Rehak, David. (2013). Territorial Risk Analysis and Mapping. Chemical Engineering Transactions. 31. 69—74. 10.3303/CET1331014.

4. Penkova T.G., Metus A.M., Nicheporchuk V.V. Method of integral analytical estimation of the natural and anthropogenic territory safety (in case of Krasnoyarsk region) // Issues of Risk Analysis. 2018;15(5):16-25, (In Russ.), https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-5-16-25

5. Castro Correa, Carmen & Sarmiento, Juan & Garuti, Claudio. (2016). Disaster Risk Assessment Developing a Perceived Comprehensive Disaster Risk Index: The Cases of Three Chilean Cities. 10.5772/62994

6. Territory wide risk assessment 2017: A strategic level analysis of the natural hazards and other emergency risks facing the act // Australian Capital Territory, Canberra 2017. URL: https://esa.act.gov.au/sites/default/files/wp-content/ uploads/The-Territory-Wide-Risk-Assessment-2017_ building-WEB.pdf

7. Timofeeva S.S. Technosphere safety of the Baikal Region: current state and problems // XXI Century. Technosphere Safety. 2018;3(4)12)):75-90, (In Riss.), https://doi.org/10.21285/1814-3520-2018-4-75-90

8. Khamidullina E.A., Drozdova T.I. Modern approaches to analysis of emergency risks in the Irkutsk Region // IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 962 (2020) 042014. doi: 10.1088/1757-899X/962/4/042014

9. Khamidullina E.А., Tarasova M.N. Risk assessment for effects of emergency depressurization of dangerous chemical storage tanks on the railroad // XXI Century. Technosphere Safety. 2017;2(1(5)):104-118, (In Russ.)

10. Khamidullina E.A., Drozdova T.I., Davydkina O.A., Agapov A.A. Simulation of emergency processes with release of hazardous substance using the software package TOXI+Risk // Occupational Safety in Industry. 2015;(7):75-79, (In Russ.)

11. Ponomareva Ye.I., Ruzhich V.V., Levina E.A. The medium-term on-line earthquake forecast in Pribaikalye and it’s potentialities // The Bulletin of Irkutsk State University. Series: Earth Sciences. 2014;18:67- 69, (In Russ.)

12. Pilone, E., Demichela, M., Baldissone, G. The Multi-Risk Assessment Approach as a Basis for the Territorial Resilience. Sustainability 2019, 11, 2612. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11092612

13. Stephen Tyler & Marcus Moench (2012) A framework for urban climate resilience, Climate and Development, 4:4, 311-326, DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2012.745389

14. Fаleev M.I., Malyshev V.P., Bykov A.A., Kondratyev-Firsov V.M. Methodological approaches to zoning the territories of the Russian Federation according to the risk levels of natural and man-made emergencies // Civil Protection Strategy: Challenges and Research. 2015;5(1(8)):67-90, (In Russ.)

15. Cho, Simjung. A Study of Risk Analysis for Human Casualty of Social Disasters based on F-N Curve // J. Korean Soc. Hazard Mitig. 2018. 18 (2). DOI: https://doi. org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2018.18.2.93

16. Vasconcelos, Vanderley & Soares, Wellington & Costa, Antonio Carlos. (2015). FN-Curves: Preliminary Estimation Of Severe Accident Risks After Fukushima.

17. Holicky, Milan. “Risk criteria for road tunnels.” (2007).

18. Pitblado, Robin & Bardy, Mariana & Nalpanis, Philip & Crossthwaite, Philip & Molazemi, Koheila & Bekaert, Maarten & Raghunathan, Vijay. (2012). International Comparison on the Application of Societal Risk Criteria. Process Safety Progress. 31. 10.1002/prs.11525.

19. Jongejan, R. & Jonkman, S.N. & Maaskant, Bob. (2009). The potential use of individual and societal risk criteria within the Dutch flood safety policy (part 1): Basic principles. 10.1201/9780203859759.ch288.