New prognostic indicator of adverse and dangerous weather phenomena — gradient of the integral helicity of the atmospheric motion velocity field
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-2-50-57
Abstract
Some new properties of integral helicity are revealed, in particular, the dipole structure of the structure of its field. Taking this circumstance into account, a more informative and illustrative criterion for evaluating integral helicity is a gradient of integral helicity that is promising in analyzing and forecasting adverse and dangerous weather phenomena.
Using the example of a convective storm inMoscow05.29.2017. Indicators of predictive quality and clarity, used as diagnostic indicators and dangerous weather phenomena. Considering that such a convective storm is predicted in just a couple of hours, or even several tens of minutes, the proposed criterion, which ensures the forecast lead time of about 12 hours, can become an important link in the technological line for predicting dangerous weather phenomena and a significant reserve for reducing economic damage due to meteorological reasons.
About the Authors
A. A. Makosko
Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
Institute of Atmospheric Physics A. M. Obukhov RAS;
Interdepartmental Center for Analytical Research in Physics, Chemistry and Biology at the Presidium of the RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
119991, Russia, Moscow, Leninsky Avenue, 14
L. O. Maximenkov
Institute of Atmospheric Physics A. M. Obukhov RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
119017, Russia, Moscow, Pyzhevsky Lane, 3
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Review
For citations:
Makosko A.A., Maximenkov L.O. New prognostic indicator of adverse and dangerous weather phenomena — gradient of the integral helicity of the atmospheric motion velocity field. Issues of Risk Analysis. 2019;16(2):50-57. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-2-50-57
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