About rationing interval values of emergency risk (risk of emergencies)

Abstract

As a key problem of risk analysis and QRA remains the problem of uncertainty presence and uncertainty quantification. The using of an interval numbers to specify emergency parameters and the interval analysis to determine the target metrics of the risk allows to assess the uncertainty of derived results. A wide use of this approach to the emergency (fire) safety management has clashed with a serious problem. It consists in the absence of a solution of the task — how to compare risk interval metrics with their normative values, which as scalar numbers have been asserted. The method of output rates setting of emergency risk has proposed in the paper in cases, when they interval character have. This method accords with the international approach in the area of radiation safety.