ON THE RELIABLE SHORT-TERM TSUNAMI FORECAST
https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-1-26-33
Abstract
One of the negative factors affecting the normal functioning of municipalities on the coast of theFar Eastare the false tsunami alarms. To date, false alarms make up at least 75% out of the total number of alarms. False alarms cause damage related to the shutdown of production, other activities in the coastal zone, the evacuation of the population, the withdrawal of vessels to the open sea.
The problem is that the tsunami warning services would announce alarms with reasonable lead time only at those points where the tsunami is of a real threat and is accompanied by information on the arrival time of the first, maximum wave, their amplitudes, and the expected time of the tsunami’s end.
The aim of the study was to study the possibility of an early tsunami forecast near the coast using data of deep-sea bottom stations located in the open ocean, without involving detailed seismological information on earthquakes.
In the numerical experiment the process of short-term forecasting of the 2006 and 2007 Simushir tsunamis was simulated near the coast of theKuril Islandsand Hokkaido Is.
To calculate the wave forms of tsunami near the coast, a method of short-term tsunami forecasting was used, which allows to calculate tsunami waveforms at given points near the coast using tsunami data in the open ocean in a real-time mode in advance.
It is shown that the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis forecast is possible in advance (0.5 to 1.5 hours before the first wave arrival) for the northern and southernKuril Islands.
The method can become a tool that will significantly reduce the number of false alarms.
About the Authors
Yu. P. Korolev
Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics FEB RAS, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. V. Loskutov
Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics FEB RAS, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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For citations:
Korolev Yu.P., Loskutov A.V. ON THE RELIABLE SHORT-TERM TSUNAMI FORECAST. Issues of Risk Analysis. 2018;15(1):26-33. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-1-26-33
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