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Method for Assessing the Effectiveness of Measures for Comprehensive Protection of the Population in Various Radiation Situations

EDN: VLBZUC

Abstract

The article examines a mathematical model developed by the authors for the integrated protection of the population under various radiation scenarios in the event of an accident at a nuclear power plant. The model is implemented as a software package that allows evaluating the effectiveness of protective measures.

Using calculations based on the model, optimal sets of protective measures are justified — these are tailored to the current radiation situation and the specific conditions of the population’s location within the radioactive contamination zone. The measures aim to minimize the risk of excessive radiation exposure to people.

A distinctive feature of the proposed mathematical model is that it takes into account the dynamics of radioactive contamination processes during an accident, as well as the implementation of protective measures. The dynamics of both radioactive contamination formation and protective measures are considered in terms of both time and territory.

This model can serve as the foundation for intelligent systems that reduce risks to the population by optimizing protection — both during the planning stage of protective measures and in the event of an accident.

The article employs analytical and informational research methods.

In conclusion, recommendations are provided for expanding the scope of application of the developed mathematical model. The goal is to refine the model to address the challenges of operational management of population protection during an accident.

It is recommended to continue research within the framework of scientific and research work.

About the Authors

Vladimir M. Polyakov
Service-Master Group
Russian Federation

Vladimir M. Polyakov,

Odesskaya St. 2, Moscow, 117638.



Zurab S. Agalarov
Sergo Ordzhonikidze Russian State University for Geological Prospecting (MGRI)
Russian Federation

Zurab S. Agalarov,

Miklouho-Maclay St., 23, Moscow, 117997.



Pavel N. Kosyrev
All-Russian Scientific Research Institute for Civil Defence and Emergencies of the EMERCOM of Russia (Federal Science and High Technology Center)
Russian Federation

Pavel N. Kosyrev,

Davydkovskaya str., 7, Moscow, 121352.



References

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Review

For citations:


Polyakov V.M., Agalarov Z.S., Kosyrev P.N. Method for Assessing the Effectiveness of Measures for Comprehensive Protection of the Population in Various Radiation Situations. Issues of Risk Analysis. 2026;23(2):14-25. (In Russ.) EDN: VLBZUC

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ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)