Buy (150 RUB)
Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription or Fee Access
Antifragility as a New Paradigm for Risk Management in the Fuel and Energy Complex for Oil Industry Facilities
EDN: JIRUTQ
Abstract
New threats to the safety of oil facilities are the result of technological, geopolitical and environmental changes in the modern world. Geopolitical conflicts and terrorism, jamming of satellites and communications, threats of unmanned aerial vehicles are among the key modern threats.
This article substantiates the need to switch from traditional security models (survivability, sustainability) to an evolutionary antifragile system. This article discusses the concept of antifragility in relation to fuel and energy sector facilities. Antifragility is a concept that can be used for any system, including the design and management of facilities in the fuel and energy complex. The application of this concept is aimed at ensuring that the fuel and energy complex facility not only withstands threats, but also develops, improves and strengthens in response to these threats (stress factors).
The article provides examples of the implementation of the concept of antifragility in the world's largest oil companies Saudi Aramco, Shell and ExxonMobil are given. The impact on the insurance sector UAV attacks on fuel and energy facilities in the period 2020-2025 is reflected. Prospects for the development of insurance mechanisms in combination with antifragile principles for responding to UAV attacks are proposed.
About the Author
O. A. Morozova
All-Russian Scientific Research Institute for Civil Defence and
Emergencies of the EMERCOM of Russia (Federal Science and
High Technology Center); Academy of GPS EMERCOM of
Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Oksana A. Morozova
Davydkovskaya str., 7, Moscow, 121352; Boris Galushkin str., 4, Moscow, 129366
References
1. Medvedev D.A., Polonchuk R.A., Malykh A.E., Morozova O.A. Risk assessment of terrorist attacks on fuel and energy facilities using uavs: analysis of foreign experience based on open sources // Issues of Risk Analysis. 2025;22(2):10-21. (In Russ.) — EDN: GKCOYW
2. The Role of Drones in Future Terrorist Attacks by Thomas G. Pledger. Land Warfare Paper No. 137, February 2021. [Электронный ресурс. URL: https://www.ausa.org/sites/ default/files/publications/LWP-137-The-Role-of-Dronesin-Future-Terrorist-Attacks_0.pdf.
3. Global Report on the Acquisition, Weaponization and Deployment of Unmanned Aircraft Systems by NonState Armed Groups for Terrorism — related Purpos. [Электронный ресурс. URL: https://www.un.org/ counterterrorism/sites/www.un.org.counterterrorism/ files/2024_unoct_car_global_report_web.pdf
4. Artyukhin V.V. Forecasting the likelihood of emergencies at the enterprises of the oil refining complex in modern conditions / V.V. Artyukhin, S.Yu. Butuzov, O.A. Morozova // Actual problems of protection and safety: Proceedings of the XXVI AllRussian Scientific and Practical Conference, St. Petersburg, April 03-06, 2023. Vol. 2. St. Petersburg: Lyubavich Printing House, 2023. P. 192–197. (In Russ.) — EDN: JMATFC
5. Morozova O., Butuzov S., Artyukhin V. Forecasting of the probability of Unnatural destructive events occurrence at refinery complexes // Reliability: Theory & Applications. 2023;18(S5(75)):411-416. https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-411-416. — EDN: YQHARG
6. Taleb Nassim Nicholas. Antifragility. How to profit from chaos? / Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Per. from the English N. Karaeva. M: CoLibri, ABCAtticus 2022. 768 p. ISBN 978-5-389-09892-3
7. Cherkesov G.N., Nedosekin A.O. Description of approach to estimating survivability of complex structures under repeated impacts of high accuracy // Dependability. 2016;16(2):3-15. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21683/1729-2646-2016-16-2-3-15
8. Shantarenkova M. Anti-fragility as a management principle. [Electronic resource. URL: https://upr.ru/ article/antihrupkost-1/ (In Russ.) (accessed: 29.07.2025)
9. Ulul Azmi, Yayat Ruyat, & Lutfi Adin Affandi. (2024). The Defence and Security System Against The Threat of Drone Weapons In The Oil and Gas Industry As a Vital National Object. International Journal Of Humanities Education and Social Sciences, 3(5). https://doi.org/10.55227/ijhess.v3i5.836
10. Morozova O.A. Determination of the hazard indicator of emergencies caused by acts of illegal interference with the use of unmanned aircraft at the facilities of the fuel and energy complex / O.A. Morozova // Ensuring the safety of oil facilities: collection of materials from the International Scientific and Practical Conference, Moscow, Russia, August 27-28, 2024. Moscow: All-Russian Research Institute for Civil Defense and Emergencies EMERCOM of Russia, 2024. P. 139-143. (In Russ.) — EDN: ZTMCAM
11. Marin-Ferrer, M., Vernaccini, L. and Poljansek, K., Index for Risk Management INFORM Concept and Methodology Report — Version 2017, EUR 28655 EN, https://doi.org/10.2760/094023
12. Swiss Re SONAR, June 2025. New emerging risk insights [Электронный ресурс. URL: https://www.swissre.com/dam/jcr:055e0c4c-32fe-48d7-a8cc-dc33944767ef/2025- 06-sr-emerging-risk-impact-fungi.pdf
13. Terje Aven The concept of antifragility and its implications for the practice of risk analysis. Risk Analisis. 2015;35(3):476-483. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12279.
Review
For citations:
Morozova O.A. Antifragility as a New Paradigm for Risk Management in the Fuel and Energy Complex for Oil Industry Facilities. Issues of Risk Analysis. 2025;22(6):22-34. (In Russ.) EDN: JIRUTQ
Views:
155
JATS XML
Email this article 