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Risk Analysis in Financial Models of Innovative Projects
EDN: SXSQMO
Abstract
A feature of innovative projects is a significant amount of uncertainty at the stage of formation and development and a set of risk factors characteristic of the project being implemented. These uncertainties and risks determine the possible deviation of the project results from the planned indicators. By their nature, risks and uncertainties are related to random variables, each of which is characterized by its own distribution and parameters. Taking into account these characteristics of input variables makes it possible, using mathematical methods for processing random variables, to determine output results in financial models of industrial projects that take into account the main risk and uncertainty factors. This study presents the results of using well-known mathematical methods and characteristics of random input variables in financial planning systems.
The peculiarity of such planning is taken into account by the "Project-Risk" program specially developed this purpose. To determine the distributions of random variables, the program uses the “ModelRisk” for add-in, which allows it to obtain the necessary characteristics of the input random variables. The "Solution Search" add-in is used to solve the optimization problems of the planned parameters.
As one of the possible options for optimizing the project, an algorithm for product planning is considered with the determination of the profit/risk ratio, which allows, by varying the initial data, to achieve the required values of its output characteristics. The results of the planned project can be presented on the "time–profit" plane, taking into account the probability of reaching certain areas of this diagram.
About the Authors
V. L. Gorbunov
Institute of System and Software Engineering and Information Technology, National Research University «MIET»
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladimir L. Gorbunov
Shokin Square, 1, Zelenograd, Moscow, 124498
I. V. Zhdanova
Institute of System and Software Engineering and Information Technology, National Research University «MIET»
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Irina V. Zhdanova
Shokin Square, 1, Zelenograd, Moscow, 124498
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Review
For citations:
Gorbunov V.L., Zhdanova I.V. Risk Analysis in Financial Models of Innovative Projects. Issues of Risk Analysis. 2025;22(5):74-83. (In Russ.) EDN: SXSQMO
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