Risk Analysis Practice for Reliability of Supply of Natural Gas with Valuable Components to Gas Processing and Gas Chemical Complexes. Part 1. Stochastic Modeling

In ensuring the reliability of the process supply chain of natural gas with valuable components for gas processing and gas chemical complexes (hereinafter referred to as GP&GCC), the study of uncertainty in the production and preparation of gas for trunk transport is of great importance. Considering that the decrease in production capacity of the fields of the GP&GCC raw material base due to various reasons (uncertainty factors) can lead to inefficient operation of gas processing lines at the complex, possible production shutdown and large economic damage, studies of the reliability of gas supplies by quantitative methods, in particular using mathematical modeling, are relevant. The first part of the article provides a methodological approach and a dynamic model developed by the authors for predicting the shortfall in gas volumes from field areas. The methodological approach to quantifying potential undersupply of gas is based on the understanding that the realization of uncertainty factors associated with the production of required volumes of gas from different areas of the fields and the production of separation gas with the required content of a valuable component in the plants of integrated gas preparation for trunk transport are stochastic in nature.

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