A Methodological Approach to Quantifying the Risks of Disrupting the Planned Deadlines for the Implementation of Projects for the Supply of New Technological Equipment to the Facilities of Oil and Gas Companies
Abstract
The article presents the results of research on the justification of the use of methods and models of project risk management to solve the problem of quantifying the risk of failure by organizations with different levels of technological and production readiness of the planned deadlines for the implementation of projects for the development, manufacture and supply of new technological equipment to production facilities of oil and gas companies.
About the Authors
I. V. Demkin
Gazprom VNIIGAZ
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Igor V. Demkin
Gazovikov str., 15/1, Razvilka, Moscow reg., 142717
S. A. Kovalev
Gazprom VNIIGAZ
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Sergey A. Kovalev
Gazovikov str., 15/1, Razvilka, Moscow reg., 142717
A. A. Mitchenko
Gazprom VNIIGAZ
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Anton A. Mitchenko
Gazovikov str., 15/1, Razvilka, Moscow reg., 142717
References
1. Project management Institute. A guide to the project management body of knowledge. Pennsylvania: Project Management Institute, 2016. 760 p.
2. Mathematical models of project management: textbook / I. N. Tsarkov; preface by V. M. Anshin. M.: INFRA-M, 2018. 514 p. (Higher education: Magistracy). (In Russ.)
3. GOST R 58970-2020. Risk management. Quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis for investment projects // URL: https://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200174887?ysclid=lu8ecrag25621741693 (In Russ.)
4. GOST R 58048-2017. Technology transfer. Technology maturity assessment methodology guide / URL: https:// docs.cntd.ru/document/1200158331?ysclid=lu8edyf2jv372484706 (In Russ.)
5. Demkin I. V. Methodology for managing innovative risk: (methods, models, tools): scientific publication / I. V. Demkin; I. V. Demkin. M.: MATI, 2008. 429 p. ISBN 978-5-93271-471-3. (In Russ.)
6. Vasyutovich A. V., Sotnikova A. N. Market risk: measurement and management // Banking technologies. 1998. № 1. URL: http://www.catback.ru/articles/practice/risk/1007081624.htm?ysclid=lu8654rpf0481324281. (In Russ.)
7. Sharp W. F., Alexander G. D., Bailey J. Investment: transl. from engl. M.: Infra-M. 2001. 1028 p.
8. Лимитовский М. А. Инвестиционные проекты и реальные опционы на развивающихся рынках. М.: Дело. 2004. 527 с. [Limitovsky M. A. Investment projects and real options in emerging markets. M.: Delo. 2004. 527 p. (In Russ.)
9. Shapkin A. S. Economic and financial risks. Evaluation, management, investment portfolio: [Monograph / A. S. Shapkin. M.: Dashkov & С°. 2003. 544 p. (In Russ.)
10. Kahneman D., Tversky A. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk // Econometrica. 1993;6(1):187–198
11. Blech Yu., Goetze U. Investment calculations: Models and methods for evaluating investment projects: [transl. from German / Y. Blech, W. Goetze. Kaliningrad: Yantar. Skaz, 1997. 437 p.
12. Gracheva M. V., Sekerin A. B. Risk management of investment project. M.: UNITI-DANA. 2012. 544 p. (In Russ.)
13. Engwall, M. (2012), “PERT, Polaris, and the realities of project execution”, International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, Vol. 5 No. 4, pp. 595–616. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538371211268898
14. Makarov V. M., Krolas P. Method for managing risks related to nonfulfillment of large energy facilities constructions projects on time // St. Petersburg State Polytechnical University Journal. Economics. 2021;14(1):109–121. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.18721/JE.14109
15. Ahyuja H. Network management methods in design and manufacturing. Transl. from Engl. B. S. Lunyakova, V. M. Simonova; Ed. V. V. Kalashnikov. M.: Mir. 1979. 638 p.
16. Dyomkin I. V. The management of innovation risk on the base of imitation simulation. Part 1. Basic approaches to risk estimation // Issues of Risk Analysis. 2005;2(3):249–273. (In Russ.)
17. Dyomkin I. V. The management of innovation risk on the base of imitation simulation. Part 2. Basic approaches to risk management // Issues of Risk Analysis. 2006;3(1):53–67. (In Russ.)
18. Mironosetsky N. B., Kirina L. V., Kuznetsova S. A. Models of managing scientific and technical progress at the enterprise / Novosibirsk: Science. Sib. otd. 1988. 153 p. (In Russ.)
19. Trotsky M., Grucha B., Ogonek K. Project Management / M.: Finance and Statistics. 2006. 301 p. (In Russ.)
20. Koldanov A. P., Koldanov P. A. Probability theory and mathematical statistics: Textbook. M.: Ed. house of the Higher School of Economics. 2023. 245 p. (In Russ.)
21. Trietsch D. PERT 21: Fitting PERT/CPM for use in the 21st century // International Journal of Project Management. 2012;30(4):490–502
22. Models of project portfolio management in conditions of uncertainty: scientific publication / V. M. Anshin [et al.. M.: ed. MATI Center. 2008. 191 p. ISBN 978-5-93271-415-7. (In Russ.)
23. Wang J., Hwang W.-L. A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model // Omega, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 247–257
24. Chiu, Chui-Yu and Chan S. Park. Fuzzy cash flow analysis using present worth criterion. The Engineering Economist. 39 (1994):113–138.
25. Demkin I. V. Risk Assessment of Termination of Innovation Project Based on Cumulative Prospectus Theory // Scientific Works of the Free Economic Society of Russia. 2006;74:96–103. (In Russ.)
26. Encyclopedia of financial risk management / ed. by A. A. Lobanova, A. V. Chugunova. M.: Alpina Business Books. 2006. 703 p. (In Russ.)
27. GOST R 54869-2011. Project management. Requirements for project management / URL: https://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200089604. (In Russ.)
28. Probability theory and mathematical statistics: study manual for universities / V. E. Gmurman. 10th ed., M.: Vysch. Shk., 2004. 479 p. (In Russ.)
29. Akimov V. A. Introduction to the statistics of extreme values and its applications / V. A. Akimov, A. A. Bykov, E. Yu. Shchetinin; EMERCOM of Russia; All-Russian Research Institute for Civil Defense and Emergencies of the Russian Emergencies Ministry. M.: VNII GOChS (FC). 2009. 536 p. ISBN 978-5-93970-037-5. (In Russ.)
30. Bykov A. A. Statistical analysis of the settlement of losses under property insurance programs: recommendations for insurers and risk managers of large companies / A. A. Bykov. M.: Gazprom VNIIGAZ, 2014. 242 p. (In Russ.)
Review
For citations:
Demkin I.V., Kovalev S.A., Mitchenko A.A. A Methodological Approach to Quantifying the Risks of Disrupting the Planned Deadlines for the Implementation of Projects for the Supply of New Technological Equipment to the Facilities of Oil and Gas Companies. Issues of Risk Analysis. 2024;21(2):54–77. (In Russ.)
Views:
271
Email this article 