On the Approach to Solving the Problem of Reducing the Likelihood of Congestion on the River Section

Floods on rivers are dangerous hydrological phenomena and pose a threat of flooding of territories where settlements, economic facilities, including critically important and potentially dangerous ones, may be located. Floods are often caused by the formation of congestion during the opening of rivers, however, forecasting the occurrence of congestion is quite problematic, and in order to protect the population and territories from such phenomena, it is necessary to carry out a sufficiently large set of measures, which leads to high economic costs. The purpose of the work is to substantiate an approach to reduce the likelihood of congestion on the river section by performing preventive engineering and technical measures. The probability of congestion depends on various factors of congestion formation, which have some parameters (characteristics). Statistical processing of data accumulated over many years of hydrological observations allows us to obtain some probabilistic assessment of the occurrence of congestion on the river section, which makes it possible to determine the need and importance of engineering and technical measures to reduce the likelihood of congestion, and with it floods. The article presents an approach to solving the problem of reducing the likelihood of congestion on the river section, taking into account the fact that when performing engineering and technical measures of a preventive nature, the parameters of the factors of congestion formation change. The methods used in the work to obtain a probabilistic assessment of the occurrence of congestion are the analysis of existing approaches for the probabilistic assessment of the occurrence of congestion, multiple regression analysis. Considerable attention is paid to the order of formation of the objective function, based on the processing of statistical data. Based on determining the degree of significance of the influence of particular parameters on the target indicator — the probability of congestion on a river section that can lead to flooding, an algorithm for forming a system of restrictions for the parameters of congestion factors is proposed. As a result, an approach to determining the probability of congestion during engineering and technical measures is presented.

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