Risk analysis of management of water systems in the Russian Federation

The management of the water management complex is based on the analysis of a large number of processes developing in systems that are techno-natural  in nature, on the one hand, and in complex socio-economic systems affecting the whole society as a whole, on the other. The management methods implemented in practice today are based mainly on the analysis of the functioning of individual parts (individual processes) of the system, ideas about the processes under consideration are often not consistent, especially when it comes to technical and social systems. Regulatory management  methods,  including  technical  regulation,  are  considered separately. Socio-economic processes at different levels of temporal and spatial organization are investigated and predicted independently. At the same time, of course, regulatory legal knowledge is taken into account, but resource restrictions may fall out or be ignored, society is immune to instructions and recommendations lowered from above, legal nihilism takes place, the problem of qualification of decision-makers arises, etc.

Certain possibilities for analyzing such situations are provided by risk theory methods. The purpose of the article is to analyze the risks arising at various stages of justifying water management measures, from design to strategies for the development of the industry as a whole. In particular, traditional methods of engineering calculations are considered, which ensure a given level of reliability of the designed water construction facilities in relation to hazardous impacts (loads), which are based on the concept of design probabilities. This approach provides a normative level of reliability, but does not guarantee the economic optimality of decisions made, is insufficient to  implement  the  social functions  of measures  and  structures,  and  is difficult to  analyze environmental problems. Obtaining quantitative estimates of the parameters of structures and measures, carried out on the basis of probabilistic approaches, should be based at least on taking into account the possible consequences of decisions taken, as well as on damage assessments expressed in the form of relevant risks.

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