PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF RISKS IN THE HORIZONTAL INTEGRATION OF THE GOLD MINING COMPANIES

Abstract

Modern vector of development of small and medium businesses in the gold mining industry is determined by the formation of new economic structures, including through the implementation of horizontal integration of enterprises, that allows to expand the opportunities for mining companies. When restructuring is very important take into account factors of uncertainty and control the level of risk. In the article the methodical approach to determining risk tolerance horizontally-integrated gold mining enterprise. It has been established that it is influenced by various internal and external factors in the process of creating value, the cash flows of the integrated enterprise, a change which must be taken into account, adjusted for appropriate risk. Assessment of occurrence of certain events in the enterprise is established in the quantitative determination of the amount of net present value (NPV) based on a probability deviation indicators such as capital costs, operating costs and gold prices. The results obtained in the study are to establish the relationship between indicators of net present value, taking into account the probability of deviations of economic indicators and the level of risk the functioning of horizontally integrated gold mining company.