Analysis of Methodological Approaches and Principles of Risk Assessment Based on the Formation of Integral Risk Index Ratings

Objectives. The object of the research is the process of assessing the social development risks, which involves ranking the objects according to their degree of exposure to risk factors. As the subject of the study we designate the main weaknesses of the risk assessment methodology using risk index ratings in various fields based on a research of Russian and foreign scientific and practical experience. The purpose of the study is the formation of a set of theoretical principles that form the ground for improving the risk assessment methodology based on the construction of integrated risk index ratings.

Methods. The main research method was a comparative analysis of the research results of foreign and Russian scientists on risk assessment in general and the formation of integrated risk indices in particular.

Results. As a result of the study, the most significant weaknesses inherent in the risk assessment methodology were identified, and the failings of the use of risk index ratings for risk assessment from different angles were specified. Some identified failings are illustrated by the example of the UN World Risk Index calculation methodology. Recommendations to eliminate identified failings are formed, ordered in a logical sequence.

Conclusions. As a result of the study it was established that the formulation of goals and objectives of assessing the social development risks substantially determines the assessment methodology and affects its results. In the case when the use of integrated risk index ratings meets the goals and objectives of the assessment, the subject of the assessment should take into account a number of fundamental methodological provisions that can significantly affect the assessment results, their objectivity and the adequacy to the problem being solved.

The authors declare no conflict of interest

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