Assessment of the geocryological risks of the route of the linear part of the underground pipeline laid in permafrost soils

The problem of forecasting and assessing the condition of underground pipelines laid in the cryolithozone is among the most urgent, priority areas of fundamental and applied research, as the violation of their work aff ects the security of the region. The real danger for underground pipelines laid in the cryolithozone is the change in the state of frozen soil around the pipeline, which can lead to uneven subsidence or buckling of the soil and, as a result, to bending and damage to the pipeline. One of the methods of detection and identifi cation of dangerous geocryological processes is geotechnical monitoring, in which the state of the natural and technical system is estimated as a result of various surveys. Geotechnical monitoring materials are heterogeneous, dependent on many factors, interrelated data. As a result of the analysis of literature, statistical data on accidents and failures of similar pipelines, experts ‘ knowledge, the factors (concepts) obtained from the materials of geotechnical monitoring and aff ecting the dynamics of geocryological processes aff ecting the pipeline route were determined. Analysis of such weakly structured data is associated with many diffi culties and can be performed using cognitive modeling methods and technologies. In this paper we consider the evaluation of the probability of activation of geocryological processes in the pipeline section and ranking of pipeline sections according to the degree of danger of geocryological processes using fuzzy logic and geotechnical monitoring data. The proposed model is performed in Fuzzy Logic MATLAB using the Mamdani algorithm. The results show that the proposed model can be used as a tool for the analysis of geocryological risks in the problems of ranking sections of the long-distance trunk pipeline in terms of the degree of danger on permafrost soils.

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