Preview

Issues of Risk Analysis

Advanced search

A topic of uncertainty in the publications of the journal "Issues of Risk analysis”

https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-3-78-93

Abstract

In article the uncertainty problem in various sections of risk analysis, its origin, methods of quantitative assessment in the field of the analysis of technogenic risk is considered. The analysis of articles published on the pages of the “Issues of Risk analysis” magazine in a varying degree devoted to subject of uncertainty is made.

About the Author

E. V. Kolesnikov
Volga State University of Technology
Russian Federation

Evgeny Yu. Kolesnikov

424000, Yoshkar-Ola, Lenin Square, 3



References

1. Avdiysky V. I. Review on the paper A. I. Grazdankin, A. S. Pechorkin “About Influence of “Complex Risk Management” on Growth of Technological Threats” // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 2. 2015. No. 3. P. 279—280. (Russia).

2. Anshin V. M., Dyomkin I. V., Tsarkov I. N., Nikonov I. M. A Review of Approaches to Resource Allocation in Project Portfolio Management under Uncertainty // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 4. 2007. No. 3. P. 207—221. (Russia).

3. Anshin V. M., Dyomkin I. V, Tsarkov I. N., Nikonov I. M. On Application of Fuzzy Set Theory to the Problem of Project Portfolio Selection // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 5. 2008. No. 3. P. 8—21. (Russia).

4. Kolesnikov E. Yu. About estimation of uncertainty of the results of technological Risk Analysis // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 9. 2012. No. 4. P. 8—46. (Russia).

5. Kononov Yu.D., Kononov D. Yu. Impact Of The Uncertainty Character On Investment Risks And Competitiveness Of Large-Scale Projects And Options Of System Development // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 9. 2012. No. 4. P. 48—53. (Russia).

6. Kolesnikov E. Yu. The quantitative assessment of technogenic risk uncertainty. Part 1 // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 10. 2013. No. 2. P. 48—71. (Russia).

7. Kolesnikov E. Yu. The quantitative assessment of technogenic risk uncertainty. Part 2 // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 10. 2013. No. 3. P. 8—31. (Russia).

8. Kolesnikov E. Yu. Analysis of technogenic risk: problems and uncertainty // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 10. 2013. No. 5. P. 14—21. (Russia).

9. Avdiysky V. A., Kuzmin E. A. Criteria conditions display stability in economy: indicative uncertainty parameter // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 10. 2013. No. 6. P. 10—22. (Russia).

10. Kuzmin E. A. Scaling And Optimization Of Uncertainty Regarding Management Decisions // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 11. 2014. No. 1. P. 50—62. (Russia).

11. Kolesnikov E. Yu. Quantitative analysis of fire risk uncertainty. Case study “solvent spillage fire” scenario // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 11. 2014. No. 1. P. 74—91. (Russia).

12. Tikhonov M. N., Rylov M. I. After Cher-Discussion club Issues of Risk Analysis, Vol. 16, 2019, No. 3 nobyl and Fukusima-1: revelation and evaluation of un-cer tainties and improbable risks with catastrophic consequences // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 11. 2014. No. 2. P. 24—49. (Russia).

13. Arkhipova V. V. The general indicator of the risk level of the construction organization as criterion of the estimation of activity of regional buildin gfirms in the conditions of risk and uncertainty (on the example of the Ryazan Region) // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 11. 2014. No. 2. P. 70—75. (Russia).

14. Alexeev V. V, Karaseva E. I. Synthesis and analysis of probabilities of events by non-numeric, inaccurate and incomplete expert information // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 11. 2014. No. 3. P. 22—31. (Russia).

15. Kuzmin E. A. Principles of management uncertainty // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 11. 2014. No. 4. P. 52—69. (Russia).

16. Kolesnikov E. Y. Uncertainty quantification of fire risk. Case study: scenario of accident “Solvent Spillage Fire” // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 11. 2014. No. 4. P. 70—14. (Russia).

17. Fiyaksel E. А., Loktev S. V., Chaprak N. V. Chaos theory is a new paradigm of risk assessment venture projects // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 11. 2014. No. 5. P. 80—87. (Russia).

18. Kuzmin E. A. Logic of Interval Uncertainty // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 11. 2014. No. 6. P. 44—59. (Russia).

19. Bykov A. A. Uncertainty and risk: relationship of concepts // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 12. 2015. No. 4. P. 4—5. (Russia).

20. Tsygichko V. N. Managing security risks under incomplete information // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 12. 2015. No. 4. P. 18—27. (Russia).

21. Kolesnikov E. Ju. Interval-matrix method of fire risk quantitative assessment on the example of liquid ammonia storage // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 12. 2015. No. 4. P. 28—41. (Russia).

22. Kuzmin E. A. On the issue of Uncertainty Cyclicity and Projectionness // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 12. 2015. No. 4. P. 42—55. (Russia).

23. Dmitriev A. V., Byvshich D. M., Korytko T. V The Leveling of the Uncertainties Inherent in Software Development Planning Electronic Warfare Equipment by Standardization Methods // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 12. 2015. No. 4. P. 56—63. (Russia).

24. Kolesnikov E. Y. About rationing interval values of emergency risk (risk of emergencies) // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 13. 2016. No. 2. P. 66—71. (Russia). https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2016-13-2-66-71

25. Kolesnikov E. Y., Kolodkin V. M. On how to calculate disaster risk metrics in the presence of uncertainty // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 13. 2016. No. 5. P. 20—34. (Russia). https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2016-13-5-20-34

26. Boev A. S., Byvshich D. M., Yarygin Y. N. Compensation of Uncertainties in Justifying the Tasks of Electronic Warfare in Operations (Combat Acts): methodical aspect // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 13. 2016. No. 5. P. 36—42. (Russia). https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2016-13-5-36-42

27. Kozhevnikova S. D., Shutko D. S., Shut-ko S. Y. Subjective aspects of decisionjmaking under conditions of risk and uncertainty in the Upstream business segment // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 14. 2017. No. 1. P. 56—63. (Russia). https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2017-14-1-56-63

28. Rybakov A. V, Sorokin A. D., Kochetkov V. V., Areveva E. V. Integrated Accident Risk Assessment for Hazardous Industrial Facilities Based on Fuzzy Logic and Logic-Probability Approach // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 15. 2018. No. 1. P. 18—25. (Russia). https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-1-18-25

29. Kolesnikov E. Yu. An interval assessment of the uncertainty of fire and emerging risk parameters // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 15. 2018. No. 6. P. 74—79. (Russia). https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2018-15-74-79

30. Knight, F.H. Risk, uncertainty and profit. The Riverside press, 2003. 381 p. (Russia).

31. U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Reactor Safety Study — An Assessment of Accident Risk in Commercial Nuclear Power Plants. WASH-1400 (NUREG-75/014). Main report, 1975. 226 p.

32. US National Research Council. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process. National Academy Press, Washington, D. C., 1983.

33. US National Research Council. Science and judgment in risk assessment. Washington, D. C.: National Academy Press, 1994. 650 p.

34. US National Research Council. Science and decisions. Advanced risk assessment. Washington, D. C.: National Academy Press, 2009. 403 p.

35. Guidelines for developing quantitative safety risk criteria. Center for Chemical Process Safety — John Wiley & Sons, 2009. 250 р.

36. Risk and Uncertainty as a Research Ethics Challenge. National Committees for Research Ethics in Norway. Publication № 9. Oslo, 2009. 42 p.

37. IAEA Safety series № 100. Evaluating the reliability of prediction made using environmental transfer models -IAEA. Vienna, 1989. 105 p.

38. Treatment of Parameter and Model Uncertainty for Probabilistic Risk Assessments. EPRI. Palo Alto, CA, 2008. 176 p.

39. Draft guidance document on characterizing and communicating uncertainty in exposure assessment. IPCS, World health organization, 2006.

40. U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk-Informed Decision Making (NUREG-1855).

41. Van Asselt M. B. A. Uncertainty in decision support: from problem to challenge. ICIS working paper I99-E006 / University of Maastricht. The Netherlands, 1999.

42. International vocabulary of metrology — Basic and general concepts and associated terms (VIM). 3rd ed. JCGM, 2008. 104 p.

43. GOST R 51897-2002. Management of risk. Terms and definitions. (Russia).

44. The Declaration “On Maximum Permissible Risk Levels” by the Russian Scientific Society for Risk Analysis // Issues of Risk Analysis. Vol. 3. 2006. No. 2. P 162. (Russia).

45. The ASSURANCE project (Assessment of Uncertainties in Risk Analysis of Chemical Establishments). Final summary report. RISО National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark, 2002. 52 р.

46. JCGM 100:2008 GUM 1995 with minor corrections Evaluation of measurement data — Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement. 134 р.

47. Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement ISO, Switzerland, 1999. (Russia.)

48. Arunraj N. S., Saptarshi Mandal, Maiti J. Modeling uncertainty in risk assessment: An integrated approach with fuzzy set theory and Monte Carlo simulation // Accident Analysis and Prevention 55 (2013). P 242— 255.

49. Jiang C., Long X. Y., Han X., Tao Y. R., Liu J. Probability-interval hybrid reliability analysis for cracked structures existing epistemic uncertainty // Engineering Fracture Mechanics. 112— 113. 2013. P 148—164.

50. Mokhtarian M. N., Sadi-Nezhad S., Makui A. A new flexible and reliable interval valued fuzzy VIKOR method based on uncertainty risk reduction in decision making process: An application for determining a suitable location for digging some pits for municipal wet waste landfill // Computers & Industrial Engineering. 78. 2014. P 213— 233.

51. Hao Zhang, Hongzhe Dai, Michael Beer. Wei Wang Structural reliability analysis on the basis of small samples: An interval quasi-Monte Carlo method // Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing. 37. 2013. P 137—151.

52. Jinglai Wu, Yunqing Zhang, Liping Chen, Zhen Luo. A. Chebyshev interval method for nonlinear dynamic systems under uncertainty // Applied Mathematical Modelling. 37. 2013. P 4578— 4591.

53. Jinglai Wu, Zhen Luo, Nong Zhang, Yunqing Zhang. A new uncertain analysis method and its application in vehicle dynamics // Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing. 50—51. 2015. P 659—675.

54. Mathematical Encyclopedic Dictionary. Ed. Yu.V. Prokhorova. M.: Soviet Encyclopedia, 1988. 847 p. (Russia).

55. Savage L.J. The foundation of satistics 2nd revised edition. New York: Dover publications, 1972. 356 p.

56. Kolesnikov E.Yu. Illusio of accuracy // Chemistry and Life. 2018. No. 8. P. 35—37. (Russia).

57. Shary S.P. Finite Interval Analysis (2017) URL: http://www.nsc.ru/interval (the date of appeal: 05.01.2018) (Russia).

58. Morgan M. G., Henrion M. Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. Cambridge University press, 1990. 344 p.

59. Uncertainty in industrial practice: a guide to quantitative uncertainty management / Ed. by Etienne de Rocquigny, Nicolas Devictor, Stefano Tarantola. John Wiley & Sons, 2008. 366 р.

60. Ayyub B. M. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences / Bilal M. Ayyub, George J. Klir Chapman & Hall / CRC Taylor & Francis Group, 2006. 380 р.

61. GOST ISO 6658-2016 Organoleptic analysis. Methodology. A general guide (Russia).

62. Hudson D. Statistics for physicists. M.: Mir, 1967. 242 p. (Russia).


Review

For citations:


Kolesnikov E.V. A topic of uncertainty in the publications of the journal "Issues of Risk analysis”. Issues of Risk Analysis. 2019;16(3):78-93. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-3-78-93

Views: 755


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 1812-5220 (Print)
ISSN 2658-7882 (Online)