Corruption as a threat to the russia national security. Evaluation and reduction of risk on the modeling’s basis

Abstract

The article presents the study of the corruption call (CC) results which implies the development of the corresponding threat, which requires a response to save the nation and the country created by it. The main emphasis is on an a priori assessment of the measure of the possibility of CC and the expected social and economic damage from it. The main tools used are graph-analytical and logical-probabilistic modeling, as well as the system analysis of the circumstances of the spread of corruption based on it and the system synthesis of proposals for its limitation. The assessing criteria of the CC severity is the risk, interpreted as an integral measure of this danger and measured in person-years of lost social time. The models developed by the author are causal diagrams and their mathematical equivalents, taking into account several dozen prerequisites for the appearance of CC and the outcomes of its destructive manifestation. Among the factors of the first group are prevail everything that results from the vicious privatization of the former USSR property and the overconsumption of the Russia citizens, while their negative consequences are various forms of economic, political and moral damage. Considering the specificity of social processes and the limited humanitarian methods of their research, an important place in the article is devoted to evaluating the parameters used in the model using the apparatus of the fuzzy sets theory and automating its system (qualitative and quantitative) analysis.