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Sanctions Regimes as Chronic Economic Emergencies: Developing the Methodological Framework of Emergency Economics
EDN: QFKSDB
Abstract
The paper develops the methodological framework of disaster economics toward the analysis of long-term institutional regimes. Unlike the classical event-based interpretation of emergencies focused on destruction shocks, the study examines persistent trajectory deviations of macroeconomic dynamics dominated by indirect losses.
The introduction of sanction-related emergencies as an object of theory logically requires refinement of the categorical apparatus and formalization of criteria for chronic regime dynamics. A formal criterion of chronic economic emergency is proposed based on counterfactual output deviation and cumulative loss function. The criterion is supplemented with an attribution condition distinguishing sanction-induced emergencies from other sources of trajectory deviation, and with a counterfactual identification protocol. An illustrative synthetic calibration confirms the reproducibility of the approach.
The study is conceptual and methodological in nature and contributes to the theoretical development of disaster economics.
About the Authors
S. S. Chebotarev
Order of the Red Banner of Labor Scientific Research Institute of Automatic Equipment named after Academician V. S. Semenikhin; Volga State University of Water Transport
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Stanislav S. Chebotarev
Profsoyuznaya str., 78, Moscow, 117393
V. Yu. Feoktistov
Order of the Red Banner of Labor Scientific Research Institute of Automatic Equipment named after Academician V. S. Semenikhin
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladimir Yu. Feoktistov
Profsoyuznaya str., 78, Moscow, 117393
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Review
For citations:
Chebotarev S.S., Feoktistov V.Yu. Sanctions Regimes as Chronic Economic Emergencies: Developing the Methodological Framework of Emergency Economics. Issues of Risk Analysis. 2026;23(3):21-32. (In Russ.) EDN: QFKSDB
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