proanarisПроблемы анализа рискаIssues of Risk Analysis1812-52202658-7882ФГБУ ВНИИ ГОЧС (ФЦ)10.32686/1812-5220-2023-20-1-36-47proanaris-672Research ArticleРИСК КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИЙСLIMATE RISKВосприятие опасности сильной засухи жителями, проживающими в районах риска провинции Ольгин (Республика Куба)Perceptions of the risk of severe drought by residents in risk areas in the province of Holguín (Republic of Cuba)https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2685-5547РейесР. П.ReyesR. P.

Рейес Ролбер Пупо: магистр педагогических наук. Физико-электронная специальность. Аспирант по специальности «Техносферная безопасность»; Заместитель делегата по окружающей среде в территориальном представительстве

ResearcherID: HMO-5711-2023Scopus Author ID: 57216933133

117198, г. Москва, ул. Миклухо-Маклая, д. 10

Перальта, Ольгин, 80400, Куба

Rolbert P. Reyes

Miklukho-Maklaya str., 6, Moscow, 117198

Holguín, Cuba, SP 80400

reyespupo79@gmail.comЛесныхВ. В.LesnykhV. V.

Лесных Валерий Витальевич: доктор технических наук, профессор, заслуженный деятель науки РФ, советник Генерального директора; профессор Департамента техносферной безопасности

Scopus Author ID: 6602914103

117198, г. Москва, ул. Миклухо-Маклая, д. 6

Valery V. Lesnykh

Miklukho-Maklaya str., 6, Moscow, 117198

vvlesnykh@gmail.comРоссийский университет дружбы народов; Территориальное представительство Министерства науки, технологий и окружающей среды (CITMA) Республики Куба в провинции Ольгин, Перальта № 16 между Пачуко Ферия и АрикочеаРоссияRUDN University; Territorial Delegation of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment in HolguínRussian FederationООО «Газпром газнадзор»; Российский университет дружбы народовРоссияGazprom Gaznadzor LLC; RUDN UniversityRussian Federation2023280220232013647Copyright © Рейес Р.П., Лесных В.В., 20232023Рейес Р.П., Лесных В.В.Reyes R.P., Lesnykh V.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.risk-journal.com/jour/article/view/672

Засуха как экстремальное климатическое явление, возникающее естественным путем и имеющее своим источником дефицит осадков, представляет собой одну из основных опасностей, затрагивающих провинцию Ольгин.

Поведение населения и лиц, принимающих решения, перед лицом этого явления может способствовать повышению или понижению эффективности действий по снижению риска засухи. Для выявления способов действия было проведено исследование восприятия опасности засухи жителями, проживающими в районах риска провинции Ольгин. Исследование заключалось в установлении максимально объективного восприятия явления как источника ущерба с количественной точки зрения, по уровням (высокому, среднему и низкому) посредством использования таблиц сопряженности простого и множественного анализа соответствий.

Было отмечено, что существует различие в восприятии опасности засухи и факторов, влияющих на поведение и жизнеспособность населения и государственных учреждений до, во время и после события.

Показано влияние восприятия риска засухи на эффективность сельского хозяйства.

Drought, as an extreme climate event that occurs naturally and has a lack of precipitation as its source, is one of the main dangers affecting the province of Holguin.

The behavior of the population and decision-makers in the face of this phenomenon may contribute to increasing or decreasing the effectiveness of actions to reduce the risk of drought. To identify ways of action, a study was conducted on the perception of the danger of drought by residents living in risk areas of the province of Holguin.

The study was to establish the most objective perception of the phenomenon as a source of damage from a quantitative point of view, by levels (high, medium and low) through the use of conjugacy tables of simple and multiple correspondence analysis.

It has been noted that there is a difference in perceptions of drought hazards and factors affecting the behaviour and viability of the population and public institutions before, during and after the event.

The impact of drought risk perception on agricultural efficiency is shown.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.